The closer to the previous high, the more active BTC is on the chain. It seems that "acrophobia" has not been cured. Although the turnover on the chain was not strong yesterday, it can be seen that there were more turnovers than before from $58,000 to $64,000. Today, with the improvement of small non-agricultural data, Canada began to cut interest rates, and market sentiment began to improve again. The Nasdaq rose by nearly 1.5%, and BTC also rose by 1.2%. However, the focus of this week is still the non-agricultural data to be released on Friday.
Judging from the situation on the chain, low prices can no longer make investors hand over their chips. When the price of BTC is below $68,000, the flow of BTC on the chain continues to decrease, and the lowest price is the same as last year's $26,000. When the price of BTC is above $68,000, the turnover of BTC on the chain is gradually increasing. Today, nearly 220,000 BTC have participated in the turnover on the chain.
This number is three times the average of last week. The increase in liquidity does not mean that the "dog dealer" is going to crash the market, because according to the data of URPD, the investors who currently participate in the most turnover are still those who held positions in the past week. Investors with a holding cost between $67,000 and $69,000 have the largest turnover, and the turnover in this $2,000 range alone accounts for more than 80% of the total circulation in the last 24 hours.
This is only for new users. For earlier investors, even if there is action, they may wait until the new high, and it is not ruled out that even if the new high is reached, the possibility that early profit investors will not increase their exit efforts. After all, from the current macro situation, the climax of the bull market has not yet arrived.
This is not something I say casually. The $66,200 holdings that we have been focusing on are still very strong. Today's turnover rate is less than 1%, and the turnover rate of $65,000 is even lower. This part of investors also has the largest holdings in the past two months. If this part of the chips does not undergo collective turnover, the possibility of BTC falling in the long term is not great.
Therefore, even from the current perspective, around $65,000 is still very strong support. The chip distribution from $64,000 to $69,000 is also very healthy. If it can be maintained after breaking through the new high, then $65,000 is likely to become a solid bottom like the previous three positions.
In addition, the current BTC holdings above $70,000 are still very small, so there may not be strong selling pressure. If Friday's non-farm data meets the needs of the Federal Reserve, it is still possible to break through the new high. Especially after the release of Friday's data, it is the weekend, liquidity is greatly reduced, and sentiment will become the main influencing factor.
Judging from the exchange's holdings data, as we expected, there continued to be a large-scale exit, rather than more BTC piling up in the exchange. At present, the lowest stock value in nearly six years is only about 1,200 BTC, which also shows that investors are not panicking at present. I don't know if this sentiment can last until Friday, but then again, there is a high probability that nothing will be done at next week's interest rate meeting. Let's see what Powell will say then.
