The central bank cuts interest rates, will the crypto market usher in a real bull market?

The Bitcoin ecosystem is rising. The more Bitcoin rises, the greater the opportunities for the entire ecosystem will be, because institutions are pulling Bitcoin, and retail investors who cannot afford Bitcoin will consider the ecosystem, so they will further promote the related ecosystem.

🚀The Bank of Canada has already started to cut interest rates in advance, and the eurozone started to cut interest rates at 10:15 pm on June 6! In the past, other central banks followed the Fed to cut interest rates, but now it is completely the other way around, and the Fed has not even determined the timing of the first interest rate cut, but this moment will come sooner or later, and the crypto market will usher in a real bull market.

The deduction of the Fed's interest rate cut:

1. Time nodes: There are two important time points for the expectation of interest rate cuts: September 18 and November 7 Fed interest rate meetings.  The US election time is the voting day on November 5. Unofficial results will be released that night or the next day, and official results will be released at the end of the year.

2. Rate cut data: According to CME data on the day, on September 18, 30.6% of the people would not cut interest rates, 57.2% would cut interest rates by 2.5 basis points, and 12% would cut interest rates by 5 basis points. The overall expected probability of a rate cut is 69.4%. On November 7, the probability of no rate cut is 17.8%, 46.5% would cut interest rates by 2.5 basis points, 30.6% would cut interest rates by 5 basis points, and 5% would cut interest rates by 7.5 basis points. The overall expected probability of a rate cut is 82.4%.

3. Rate cut deduction: Considering the situation of the US election, the election is 2 days before the rate cut in November. If the rate cut starts in November, the good news will be realized, and the financial market will crash during the election, causing market fluctuations and affecting the election results. If the rate cut starts in September, there are still 2 months before the November election. Even if the US stock market crashes and pulls back, there is enough time to digest the short-term bubble and ensure the stability of the stock market during the election. 4. Conclusion: Based on the above, the probability of interest rate cuts starting in September is the highest. If this inference is true, then in the three months from June to August, the financial market has the potential benefit of interest rate cut expectations, which is good for the US stock market and the crypto market. Bitcoin is forming a main upward trend. After May, the crypto market will usher in a trend of continuous growth, but it will be slightly weaker in the third quarter. Recently q1un + Wei: BTC88107, the Bitcoin ecosystem is rising. The more Bitcoin rises, the greater the opportunity for the entire ecosystem will be, because institutions pull Bitcoin, and retail investors who cannot afford Bitcoin will consider the ecosystem, so it will further promote the related ecosystem.#BTC☀ #山寨季何时到来？ #BTC走势分析