The bull market is coming, and some altcoins still can't get back to the high point?
Let me tell you my thoughts. The current market value of the cryptocurrency market is about 2 trillion, and the market value of the cryptocurrency market at the peak of the bull market in 2021 is about 3 trillion. Everyone knows that with monetary easing/cryptocurrency cycle/economic growth, the bull market is coming!
The following assumes that the market value of this bull market can reach twice that of the previous bull market! That is 6 trillion! This is an extremely optimistic assumption.
Assuming that the total market value of the cryptocurrency market is 6 trillion, how to divide this pie?
First of all, the BTC.D (Bitcoin Dominance Index) in the altcoin season has dropped to about 40%, that is, 2.4 trillion, and the coin price is about 126,000 dollars, which is also in line with the reasonable estimated target of everyone!
But the remaining pie of 3.6 trillion (60%) is very embarrassing. First, let's take the king of memes, DOGE as an example. In the last round, the highest coin price was 0.73, and Dogecoin accounted for 4% of the total encrypted market value!
But now the meme sector only accounts for 2% of the total cryptocurrency market value, and Dogecoin only accounts for 30% of the total market value of the meme sector! Assuming that memes can account for 3% of the total cryptocurrency market value in the bull market, Dogecoin will also account for 30% of the total meme market value (this does not take into account the endless new memes in the future) The market value of Dogecoin is 6T*3%*0.3, and the corresponding coin price is about 0.3 dollars, which is the limit!
In 2021, there were very few meme choices, so DOGE could account for more than 80% of the meme market value, but now it is impossible!
Let's look at ADA again. There were very few L1 public chains in the last bull market. At the high point, ADA's market value reached 4.4% of the total cryptocurrency market value!
There are so many new L1s in this bull market that ADA only accounts for 0.62% of the total cryptocurrency market value. If ADA is to break its previous high, ADA needs to account for more than 2.2% of the total cryptocurrency market value.
To become a public chain that accounts for 2.2% of the current cryptocurrency market value, the market attention should be like SOL at the beginning of this year, and it needs a lot of themes to set off. At present, new public chains are emerging, TON APT SUI KAS all have themes, and it is very difficult for ADA to grab 2.2% of the market value. I estimate that it can account for 1.2%, and the price can quadruple to $1.4, which is extremely optimistic!
The main reason is that there are too many projects/themes now. Even if the fish tank doubles in size, the fish in it increase by 4-5 times, and the market flow increases, the fish will not be fatter. In the second half of the bull market, the better strategy is to stick to the big cake income and pay attention to the market hot spots to grasp the block rotation, which is more stable!
