Focus of the week: The two major central banks kick off the interest rate cut, and the US non-farm payrolls are the last to appear
On Tuesday, pay attention to Germany's May employment report. Previously, the unemployment rate has remained at a high level of 5.9% for five consecutive months, increasing concerns about the German economy, and will also affect the judgment of the interest rate path after the ECB cuts interest rates this week. The United States also released employment data in the evening. Whether the JOLTs job vacancies in April will slow down for two consecutive months, the data will also have some reference for Friday's non-farm payrolls outlook.
Australia's first quarter GDP annual rate in the Asian market on Wednesday, the strength of the data will affect the market's judgment on when the Reserve Bank of Australia will start to act. Last week, Australia's April inflation was unexpectedly stronger than expected, indicating that the Reserve Bank of Australia needs to maintain high interest rates for a longer period of time, suppressing the possibility of a rate cut this year.
In the evening, the United States announced the number of ADP employment in May, which is expected to slow down for two consecutive months and further drop to 180,000. If it meets expectations, it will be the lowest in three months, corresponding to the slowdown of more other employment data in recent times, suggesting that Friday's non-farm payrolls will continue to cool down.
That night, the Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision. Most of the market expected that it might usher in the beginning of a rate cut cycle, lowering the interest rate from a high of 5.00% to 4.75%, marking the beginning of the easing policy of the central banks of major economies. However, with most of the market already digesting it, the key to determining the trend of the Canadian dollar lies in whether it takes a dovish stance on rate cuts.
Thursday is the prelude to the ECB's rate cuts. It is basically certain that it will cut the benchmark deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points from the historical high of 4%, corresponding to the eurozone inflation rate close to the ECB's target level of 2%, and central bank officials have already laid a lot of groundwork for the start of rate cuts. Pay attention to our ECB resolution outlook on Thursday to explore the impact of rate cuts on the euro and European stock markets.
On Friday, the US May non-farm report will be released. This is the last guidance of the Fed's June resolution, so the data will undoubtedly affect the Fed's discussion on the prospects of rate cuts at that time. It is expected that employment will continue to slow down. Although it may not affect the Fed's interest rate cuts in September, it will affect the Fed's external wording. As always, pay attention to our non-farm payrolls outlook and analysis on Friday, plan your strategy and win the battle from afar, follow us sincerely
