Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas recently said that the US spot Ethereum ETF is likely to be launched at the end of June, a prediction based on recent document updates from BlackRock and Grayscale. Balchunas specifically mentioned that the launch in mid-June is less likely, and the latest listing date for the product is expected to be July 4.

Balchunas' expectations are mainly influenced by the timing of issuers' S-1 statements. BlackRock's S-1 amendment, filed on May 29, did not include fees and other important data, meaning the document is close to final. In addition, Grayscale's S-3 amendment, filed on May 30, updated its funds and explicitly prohibited staking. The two statements mark the completion of one of the last necessary steps before these funds can begin trading.

From the perspective of market operation and regulatory process, the launch of ETFs requires multiple approvals and document submission procedures. The submission and revision of these documents reflect the issuer's compliance with market regulatory requirements and the final adjustment of product design. Therefore, although there is no exact listing date yet, based on the progress of existing documents, the possibility of launching at the end of June is reasonable.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. expressed support for cryptocurrency at the Consensus 2024 conference in Austin, Texas, and purchased 21 Bitcoins. Kennedy made it clear that he would focus on economic and health issues and would not get involved in Trump or Biden's legal disputes. He appreciated Trump's new support for cryptocurrency and hoped that Biden would take a similar stance.

From a policy perspective, Kennedy emphasized that the key to US cryptocurrency regulation lies in free transactions and transparent currency. He promised to protect consumers from fraud while ensuring that the United States maintains its leading position in blockchain technology. This shows that he hopes to promote the healthy development of the cryptocurrency industry through a good regulatory framework while protecting the interests of investors.

Specifically, Kennedy bought 21 bitcoins and three coins for each of his children, demonstrating his confidence and support for cryptocurrencies. This behavior is not only a personal investment, but also a strong proof of his policy stance. However, it is worth noting that he advocates for cryptocurrencies as transaction currencies and proposes not to impose capital gains tax on them, which may face challenges under the current legal and tax framework.

Grayscale chose Coinbase as the custodian of its Ethereum ETF. According to relevant documents, Coinbase currently holds 90% of the total assets of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, a fact that makes it an extremely important position in the market. However, experts have expressed concerns about this highly centralized custody arrangement.

First, from the perspective of market operation, the centralization of Coinbase as a major custodian may bring systemic risks. Once Coinbase encounters any technical or management problems, it may have a huge impact on the entire cryptocurrency ETF market. Especially considering Coinbase's dominant position in US spot Bitcoin ETFs, this risk cannot be ignored.

Second, from a compliance and regulatory perspective, Coinbase, as the only major custodian, may attract the attention of regulators. Overly centralized custody arrangements may be considered to lack sufficient risk diversification, which is contrary to the regulatory trend in modern financial markets. Regulators may require Grayscale and other ETF funds to diversify custody to reduce concentration risks.

The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 706 coins yesterday (May 30), worth US$49 million.

BTC: Yesterday, a large-volume spindle line was closed. The long upper shadow line indicates that the main force may be trying to pull up the price. Currently, it is repeatedly fluctuating and consolidating at the 5-day moving average position. The short-term chips are relatively concentrated, and the market may change in the short term. Considering the continuous positive inflow of ETF funds, it is expected to choose to move upward.

ETH: A spinning hammer was closed yesterday, and the short side volume has weakened. From the data of fund flow, the net outflow in the past 24 hours was 36.9416 million US dollars, indicating that there is a large selling pressure in the market. In the short term, it is still in the stage of shock adjustment, and it is likely to choose to go up after the adjustment. If the US spot Ethereum ETF is launched as scheduled at the end of June, it will inject new funds into Ethereum.

HIGH: The tombstone line has been closed for 2 consecutive days, and the main force may start to ship out in the short term. It is now above the 5-day moving average. Even if there is a pull-up today, it may be a flash in the pan, and the short-term risk begins to increase!

MKR: Yesterday, a spindle line was closed, and it is now at the 120-day moving average position. It has been washed at this position for a long time. The short-term volume is gradually increasing, and the market is expected to rise in the future.

FRONT: Yesterday, a spinning hammer line was closed. Multiple moving averages at the daily level are glued together. MACD is above the zero axis. Wait patiently for adjustments. It is expected to strengthen after the adjustments.

Today's hot topic: BTC ecology.

The Fear Index is currently at 73 (Greed) #BTC走势分析 #新币挖矿 #现货以太坊ETF获美SEC批准