📍Talk about the opportunities under the full competition and diversified pattern of L2

Yesterday Vitalik posted an article on Twitter. In the article, he briefly talked about the current L2 pattern. I found that although #Taiko The reputation in the community is not very good, but he has mentioned it several times.

Based on the phenomenon described in this article, it makes me think that the final pattern of L2 may not be dominated by several major L2s as previously envisioned, but move towards overall equilibrium.

Therefore, with the continuous launch of new L2s, it will certainly help the diversification of the ecological market, but this stage may not be a very suitable track for secondary market investors.

Why? In fact, there is only one sentence: "Don't go against the policy."

Give two examples: 1. The liquidity pledge track has a 33% "policy red line", which is not only related to personal will, but also to the argument of whether it is decentralized. Therefore, the business scale ceiling of liquidity pledge is actually limited.

(As a downstream track for business acceptance, there is no such red line restriction)

2. As the business track based on each chain, the DEX track is also a fully competitive competitive landscape. According to incomplete statistics, there are more than 1,300 DEXs, which can be said to be the largest internal volume in the industry. =Diversification track

(You can imagine that in the secondary market, our tolerance for error in this sector is actually quite low)

Then L2 actually has the above two track characteristics:

(1) The guiding ideology of the large basic plate - diversification

(2) Large number and full competition

It is difficult for us to deny that some of the current development directions of Ethereum are more influenced by the will of individuals or certain entities, so the multi-Rollup pattern can be said to be a high-probability trend

By continuously expanding the execution layer, the Ethereum main chain can better play the role of the consensus (security) layer

In the future, a multi-Rollup ecological spectrum with the Ethereum main network consensus as the independent core will be formed, including the current applications on the original chain are also beginning to gradually develop towards the application of Rollup (ENS has recently proposed to expand to L2)

Currently, there are nearly 200 L2s that have not been launched and have been launched, but the market liquidity is temporarily fixed: if the traffic flow is fixed, the lanes are constantly expanding, and the space for traffic flow to choose becomes very large

Therefore, based on the above logic, the upstream of Rollup construction may become the second half of L2 competition in this cycle

For example, the super chain framework of $OP and the modular Rollup construction of $ALT belong to this category (ARB's Orbit plan is for L3 and does not belong to this category)

With the improvement of upstream solutions, the launch of these various personalized rollups actually conforms to the diversified supplement of the L2 ecological spectrum described by Vitalik

Therefore, for some emerging Rollups, it is no longer possible to completely consider whether it is worth participating from the differentiated needs that can be solved by the infrastructure. It is also necessary to consider whether the Rollup has the competitive ability to break through the homogeneous competition

For example, for a specific application Rollup, the valuation logic should start from the application end, while for the basic Rollup of the execution layer business, it is really necessary to think more about the competition for market share

Figure: The distribution of the top ten TVLs of ETH L2 has actually initially demonstrated this balanced diversification phenomenon