I just listened to a clip of Mr. Lu Qiyuan's speech in Guangzhou today.

Mr. Lu's words really corrected my previous views.

I used to think that in order to ensure the dollar's consolidated position and global money-making ability, the United States would not give up strengthening and protecting the dollar, and would even give up US stocks and protect the dollar when it was reasonable. But after listening to the speech, I found that this logic is indeed cognitively wrong, and I need to apologize to everyone for this. Some of the previous views have caused misunderstandings.

Also for US stocks and the US dollar, Mr. Lu's views are exactly the opposite of mine.

The asset prices in the United States cannot and are not allowed to fall, because it involves people's livelihood, and public opinion is fundamental. The most intuitive manifestation of asset prices is the US stock market. To put it bluntly, the US stock market cannot and is not allowed to collapse under reasonable circumstances.

The core reason is that 90% of the assets of U.S. pension funds are involved in the U.S. stock market. Once the U.S. stock market shrinks significantly, the assets of pension funds will shrink significantly. The pension problem will be a serious problem. Many people will have no pension funds and can only return to work in order to survive. This will increase the problem of job competition and bring about a short-term squeeze in the labor market. If many people cannot get a job and have no income, it will breed crime and even lead to internal unrest, affecting people's livelihood and public opinion.

Although many people can say that capital does not care about the people, it is not difficult to understand that the government needs the support of the people.

In order to protect the price of assets, that is, U.S. stocks, it means that the U.S. dollar must be abandoned at some point, but in fact, it cannot be said that the U.S. dollar must be abandoned. In Mr. Lu's system, a value reset problem is often mentioned, that is, an asset or thing has its actual value, but under human or market factors, the actual value is pushed up, a bubble is generated, and then the bubble continues to expand until the bubble bursts. It is a process of value reset, allowing the asset to return to its original value.

In other words, the substantial over-issuance of the U.S. dollar and various hegemonic empowerments have led to the fact that the value of the U.S. dollar is actually far beyond the value that the United States itself should define for the dollar. Therefore, the abandonment of the U.S. dollar mentioned above cannot be regarded as abandonment, but rather a reset of its value to complete a cycle.However, unlike any other asset value reset process in the world, the reset of the value of the US dollar may be to reset it together with the world. If everyone is reset at the same level, then I am still the strongest, because the global dominance of the US dollar is still wide enough. So the US dollar can make the world follow it to reset the value of the US dollar.

After listening to Mr. Lu's speech, I thought it was true. Although the US dollar index is still very high, in fact, this index is only caused by the weakness of other currencies in the comparison of the US dollar basket of currencies. This kind of strength is a strength under the weakest comparison. If the US dollar is really strong, the gold price will not be so high.

The continuous strengthening of gold prices is not only caused by geopolitical issues. A large part of the factors is also due to the gradual decline of the US dollar's credit system, which has led to the strengthening of the US dollar's power to buy gold.

Through this point, you can actually understand why I mentioned a few days ago that JPMorgan Chase has been shorting gold since around 2,000 gold, and the recent sharp decline in gold prices after a surge is also due to market factors.

According to Mr. Lu's speech, I have indeed reshaped my previous wrong cognition. I will change my thinking based on these contents in the future analysis and judgment. Finally, I still want to apologize to the friends who were misled by my wrong views before. #ETH #BTC走势分析 $BTC