Let's interpret the macroeconomic data of the United States tonight. I was still outside when the data was released just now. I just got home.
1. The number of initial unemployment claims in the United States for the week ending May 18 (10,000 people), the previous value was 22.3, the expected value was 22, and the announced value was 21.5.
The value shows that the US job market is strong.
There are 3 possibilities for the emergence of this data:
1. The economy is strong, the economy is good, companies are willing to expand, and recruit more new employees, resulting in fewer initial unemployment claims
2. The increase in workers' wages leads to satisfaction with the work of existing workers, reducing the desire to leave and re-employ, but the competitiveness of the job is enhanced. At the same time, people who do not meet the job requirements cannot find a job, and would rather receive relief than participate in low-wage work.
3. The labor market is strong, and people's expectations for finding a new job increase, and their confidence increases.
There are three possibilities. According to the current layoffs of major companies in the United States, the main factor for the reduction in initial unemployment claims this time is mainly the second possibility. Of course, from the data, it can also be interpreted as a strong economy (I personally think it is unreliable)
At the same time, the data is not conducive to inflation control on the surface, reducing the market's optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts.
Second, the initial value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in May, the previous value was 50, the expected value was 50, and the announced value was 50.9. This value is the purchasing managers' view on the manufacturing industry, including new orders, employment, prices and other sub-items. At the same time, with 50 as the base line, 50 or above represents an industry increase, and 50 or below represents an industry contraction.
The data is higher than the previous value and expectations, indicating that the US economic activity has grown, corporate confidence has increased, and corporate investment intentions have increased.
However, we can still see that the manufacturing PMI index has been hovering around 50. Although the United States has been trying to save and restore its manufacturing industry, it has achieved little success at present.
Of course, looking at the data alone, it can still be interpreted as a strong US economy, which is not conducive to inflation control and optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts. In fact, if it is inflation caused by the strong manufacturing industry, it is the easiest data to digest. Unfortunately, the manufacturing PMI data is strong but limited.
Third, the initial value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in May, the previous value was 51.3, the expected value was 51.3, and the announced value was 54.8. This index is the purchasing managers' view on the service industry, including new orders, employment, prices and other sub-items.
Compared with the manufacturing PMI, the service industry PMI is the highlight. In fact, the core problem of the difficulty in controlling inflation in the United States is that the main source of inflation does not come from the manufacturing industry, because the inflation brought by the manufacturing industry is benign inflation, and the economy will digest part of it by itself. Instead, it is the inflation other than the manufacturing industry that has been putting pressure on the US inflation, such as the current service industry. The inflation brought by the service industry or investment field is the most difficult to control and the most likely to rebound. It is also the cause of the excessive gap between the rich and the poor.
At present, the data is not only higher than the expectations and the previous value, but even stronger than expected. The data also strengthens the expectation of a strong US economy. After all, 80% of the US GDP comes from the service industry, but it also means greater inflationary pressure. It is not conducive to inflation control and optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts.
Fourth, the total number of new home sales in the United States in April was annualized (10,000 households), the previous value was 66.5, the expected value was 67.9, and the announced value was 63.4. This value refers to the number of houses with signed sales contracts.
There are four possibilities for this value:
1. Economic weakness and declining purchasing power. Of course, this data contradicts the above strong US economic data.
2. Rising interest rates have led to rising home purchase rates. Although the current US federal funds rate remains at 5.25%-5.5%, the actual base rate has reached 7.5%, and the interest rate for civilians to borrow from banks is basically around 7%. Higher interest rates lead to increased loan costs and reduced willingness to buy houses with loans.
3. Rising house prices. There is no valid data to support this, but according to my personal understanding, in the United States, especially in major areas, a large number of houses are controlled by people and the prices are raised. I will not mention which group is the main one here. Those who are interested can find out for themselves.
4. Insufficient housing supply. Literally, this does not exist. For the United States, there is a lot of land and a small population, so the housing supply is still sufficient, but the houses in good locations and regions are artificially controlled, and the ability of the lower-class people to buy houses has indeed weakened.
Housing data is not very important, but the main factors for the weakening data are 2 and 3. High interest rates and rising housing prices have led to a decline in new housing data. At the same time, housing data involves several other data, such as home buyers purchasing furniture and appliances, financial banks selling mortgage certificates, and intermediary fees.
The decline in this data unilaterally indicates that inflationary pressure has decreased, which is helpful for the optimistic expectations of interest rate cuts, but this data cannot be used as the main measurement data, so the influence is relatively small.
Of the above four data, three are from the data to show the strength of the US economy, which can also be interpreted according to the strength of the US economy, so it brings pressure on inflation control, and intuitively unfavorable to the PCE index next Friday, especially the core PCE index. The current data has brought certain pressure, and the market's expectations for the Fed's optimistic interest rate cut have been reduced.
At the same time, the market heard that the expectation of interest rate cuts in 2024 was postponed from November to December, which once caused the market sentiment to decline in the short term.
However, the main short-term sentiment of the crypto market is still based on the Ethereum ETF data released early this morning.
If the Ethereum ETF is passed, even if only the single file 19b-4 is passed, the short-term market will rise, and then it may trigger Sell the news, a short-term decline, and digest the expected landing sentiment.
If it is not passed, the market sentiment is bearish, and the current macro data is not optimistic about the short-term interest rate cut this year, and the decline may increase.
At present, the current macro data can only serve as an inducement to the market trend and cannot be the main reason.
