Change or no change, which is more important? Thoughts on the ETH ETF event

Recently, ETH ETF is the hottest event in the crypto market. A 20% big positive line has made many people optimistic about the future of ETH.

Including the options of some targets in the three major markets that I have been trading in the past two years. I think over and over again, and it seems that the targets I trade in each market are very limited.

For example: I have only traded the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in A-shares in the past two years; I have only traded TLT (including TMF), DPST, SPY and TSLA in US stocks;

I spend more time on cryptocurrencies and mainly trade BTC, ETH, Sol, Ton (a small amount of Doge and Kas)

Are these so-called "capability circles" of fixed income good? Should we look for some new narratives and find alpha for investment or trading? I've been reading "The Bezos Biography" recently, and there's a sentence in it that I think is particularly good:

"People often ask me: What will change in the next 10 years? I think this question is very interesting and common.

No one has ever asked me: 'What won't change in the next 10 years?' I tell you, the second question is more important - because your business strategy must be built on a stable foundation for a certain period of time...

In the retail industry, we know that customers want low prices, and this will not change in the next 10 years.

They want faster delivery, they want more choices. Even in another 10 years, it's impossible for a customer to jump out and say to me: Bezos, I really love Amazon, I just hope your price can be higher, or I love Amazon, I just hope you can deliver slower."

"

Isn't it the same for the target of your own investment? There are all kinds of new concepts and new outlets in the market every day, and it seems that each one may change the world, but how many people really grasp these opportunities?

Every round of crypto bull market has a particularly sexy narrative waiting for you. Let's not talk about the distant past. In the last round of NFT, how many OG players lost more than 7 digits?

In investment, whether you see the changes or the constants, you can make a lot of money. But for ordinary people like me, it is easier to see the constants. After all, the future is difficult to predict, but history can be used as a reference.

Some time ago, when Ba Lao was holding a shareholders' meeting, someone asked him "AI-related questions". His original answer was: "I do think I am a person who knows nothing about artificial intelligence.It has huge benefits, but also potential harms. I don't know what the outcome will be. "

Buffett has accumulated so much wealth, and the profits are all from traditional industries, such as consumer stocks, bank stocks, insurance stocks, etc. that have existed for decades, such as See's Candies, Coca-Cola, Wells Fargo, etc. Even if he tried to buy Apple in recent years, its products have long been on the market and have monopolized industry profits for more than ten years.

So, what are the things that are difficult to change?

There is an economist in the United States named Oliver Williamson, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2009. He once divided the institutions in human society (including formal and informal) into four levels, and explained the time required for each change, as shown in the figure below.

When I was working in an institution before, I went to a road show once, and I talked about: "The highest level of monopoly is the monopoly of the mind. The so-called monopoly of the mind is to form a kind of social customs and culture that cannot be stopped. ”

If the moat of a target is based on a society’s long-term cultural tradition, this moat is also the most stable. Such companies are usually asset-light businesses. As long as there are no major problems with the management, the profit margin will be very high. If they can be bought at a reasonable or undervalued price, the long-term return will be very considerable.

In the next ten years, which needs of people will not change? Which companies’ products and services correspond to them? Are these companies really “gorilla assets”? When does the turning point of their profit and loss ratio occur?

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