5 days until the Fed meeting!
▪️ Fed Balance Sheet:
- Down $22.3 billion in one week.
▪️ Market expectations (#Fed rate):
- 99.8% chance of a 25 bp interest rate hike 26 July.
▪️Bloomberg:
- In July, the Fed rate is expected to peak from 5.25% to 5.5% (the highest since 2001).
- The first interest rate cut is expected in March 2024.
- CPI data confirms our base case that the July rate hike will be the last in a 16-month cycle.
- Most economists expect a recession in the US within 12 months.
▪️ Nationwide Life:
- Almost certainly the Fed will raise the rate next week, all attention will be paid to the Press Conference of George Powell.
