Since the 4.20 halving, it has broken through 67,300, and it seems to have gotten rid of the downward trend. Let's talk about judging the possible bull market top in the next few months of 2024 to 2026.
If the macro interest rate hike to the next interest rate hike is regarded as a complete cycle, then the suspension of interest rate hikes to the next cycle interest rate hike (the end of water release, interest rate hikes) are all the rising climax bubble period of the risk market (main speaker #BTC).
The last cycle climax bubble period was from the beginning of 2019 to April 2022. There are a total of 6 peaks.
1. From the beginning of 2019 to June 2019, the period of suspending interest rate hikes
2. From September 2019 to February 2020, after the second interest rate cut, plus the epidemic
3. From March 2020 to August 2020, the first water release
4. From October 2020 to May 2021, the general election plus the second water release
5. From July 2021 to November 2021, the futures ETF passed
6. From January 2022 to April 2022, the last time before the interest rate hike Basically, these 6 times are crazy, and the second and sixth times are slightly worse. But the second time was indeed good because it caught up with the second interest rate cut (September 19, 2019, the first interest rate cut was in July), but it caught up with the epidemic, so the unemployment rate immediately increased, leading to a recession of 312. The sixth time, strictly speaking, cannot be considered the top. After all, the increase is not large, but the sentiment is really good. The last time before the interest rate hike.
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