Market Analysis 5.18
Good morning, brothers. Saturday is coming soon.
There will be no big movement on Saturday and Sunday,
because no Fed officials will speak, and no economic data will be released.
What we have to guard against is Israel's attack on Hamas,
because there is no rest day in war.
If a missile accidentally hits Egypt, or Iran launches an attack behind Israel.
Then a war is inevitable, and BTC will plummet.
But this possibility is only 10%.
If there is no black swan, BTC will remain strong and is expected to return to $70,000.
It seems that the interest rate cut party is about to restart. Can we continue to play music and dance?
In addition to CPI, more and more data show that the effect of the Fed's interest rate hike is showing, such as the stagnation of retail sales in April and the downward revision of the growth rate for two months, indicating that Americans can no longer consume. In the first quarter, US household debt reached a record level, indicating that many Americans are difficult to repay their debts.
But the probability of a rate cut in September is not too high, because Powell said on Tuesday that at least one quarter of data will be needed to determine whether there will be a rate cut.
Therefore, each subsequent economic data release will bring new variables. I hope that the expectation of a rate cut will not be reversed, causing a sharp drop in BTC.
On-chain data is still bullish
(1) Stablecoins flowing into exchanges continue to increase, and there was still a significant inflow after 8:00 last night
(2) Not many BTCs flow into exchanges, only more than 2,000, and the general trend in recent days is outflow
The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) plans to launch spot Bitcoin trading,
which marks the further advancement of major Wall Street institutions in cryptocurrencies,
which is good for BTC.
In short, the current positives outweigh the negatives. Before Mentougou releases news in September this year,
it is estimated that there will be another wave of increases.
Brothers in the car suggest that you hold your positions patiently to avoid missing out.