The payback cost of BTC mining after halving is about $45,000.#JPMorganChase analysts came to these calculation results.
Analysts revised their previous forecast - if earlier they said that the cost of production after the block reward was halved would reach $42,000, now we are talking about an amount of $3,000 more:
“We previously expected a significant drop in hashrate after the halving as unprofitable miners left the Bitcoin network. There appears to be some delay in this happening. At the current hashrate and energy consumption, our estimate of the cost of Bitcoin mining is about $45,000, which is much lower than current prices."
JPMorgan noted that temporary interest in the Runes protocol allowed miners to earn normally immediately after the Bitcoin halving, so the hashrate did not immediately decrease. But this was a temporary phenomenon. They also believe that in the medium term the payback rate will drop to $42,000.
At the same time, financial group analysts are inclined to see limited potential for#BTCprice growth in the near future. And they stated that an increase in the price of production of the first cryptocurrency will not act as a growth stimulus for asset prices. According to their assessment, as soon as the situation with hashrate and mining efficiency stabilizes, the industry will see a decrease in the value of #BTC.
According to JPMorgan, the situation is affected not only by the problems of miners, but also by the limited inflow into American spot Bitcoin ETFs. Although, according to#Bloombergestimates, the May inflows of capital into American Bitcoin ETFs have already fully compensated for the outflows of April, one can argue with this thesis. According to JPMorgan, their contribution is also made by the low demand for crypto funds in Hong Kong, launched at the end of April 2024.
