📍Why did the market give a 1 billion valuation in advance when $NOT was initially launched? 丨Comparative valuation method of leading Meme
The leading Meme will have a market value of about 3% of the infrastructure FDV. I have listed this data, all calculated based on FDV
The market can initially estimate 1 billion before NOT goes online, based on this judgment basis (FDV)
However, I think there is a prerequisite for this 3%: the market activity of the chain is sufficient
That is to say, the liquidity of the chain market needs to be sufficient. I have noticed that some research reports have used this valuation comparison method to conduct some Meme market research on unpopular chains and calculate the corresponding valuation, but I think it is of little reference value
Because many chains are currently playing by themselves, there is no user or liquidity retention for a long time, so this 3% leading Meme is more like an indicator of whether the chain is active based on the current results and the ceiling of the Meme market
Whether the Meme activity is active can almost be used as an indicator to judge the user activity of a chain. See BNB in the chart below Chain's leading Meme market capitalization share is still a little bit lower
📍But currently, for several relatively active chains (ETH/BNB/SOL/TON), the average leading Meme market capitalization share is basically 3%
In addition to the above phenomena, I also have a few personal thoughts in this short article👇🏻(1) If the fundamentals of these Layer1 remain unchanged in the future, that is, there is no large-scale migration of liquidity stock, then this chain-based 3% indicator can be used as the valuation level of the leading Meme
(2) If there are new popular chains launched in the future, and The Meme market of this chain has not yet emerged. 3% can be used as the valuation ceiling for the leading Meme, and the FDV market value of the chain can be used to gradually push it.
(3) The valuation ceiling of the Meme market should react to the FDV market value of the infrastructure.
(4) Market attention and FDV are the basic conditions. The corresponding Meme should also be calculated by FDV. Memes with various token designs that lead to unfair distribution should be considered for exclusion. Bottom-up should be considered first.
Figure 2: The valuation issue discussed with a few friends 5 minutes before NOT went online yesterday was based on the above logic.
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1. Let’s define NOT first. The Meme attribute is definitely greater than the game attribute, and there is not even any shadow of the game. Strictly speaking, it can be defined as the track of [mobile mining]
The user volume of this track is really huge. The famous project that has not been launched in this track is PINetwork, and the most famous in the secondary market is CORE
2. The exchange listing NOT is actually understandable, but this time it is a bit surprising that OKX, which is also listed on Binance, is mining new coins. I remember that the last one like this seemed to be ACE
Because the former may want user traffic. After all, it is said that the number of users backed by TG is also huge, and it is normal for the exchange to eat this traffic. This is a passive perspective, but there is initiative in the new coin mining
3. Based on the second point, I said before that it may be that the seal of TON has loosened. Previously, TON had regulatory issues. This may have led to Binance not launching it, and TON is the only one in the top 20 that has not been launched.
(Background supplement: TON became the target of SEC litigation in 2020)
But since last year, we can see that TON has been very active in the industry. It is speculated that it has escaped the previous regulatory shadow. I have not found any public information on whether there are any specific SEC-related events.
4. NOT and the logo are TON in reverse. Therefore, although I said in the first point that it can be defined as the [mobile mining] track, it still has the strongest Meme attribute. After all, if there is a serious business project, it will not have such a Meme-oriented tone.
5. NOT is fully circulated when it is launched, and nearly 80% of it belongs to the community. This selling pressure is unimaginable. In addition, the initial launch is used for new coin mining. The proportion is only 3%, which is far lower than the proportion of any previous period compared with the full circulation.
We calculate the market value in circulation. The previous #Binance Launchpool basically circulates about 10%, so the proportion of new coin mining in it can have a certain influence
In the current situation, the proportion of new coin mining has almost no influence
6. In addition to the recent launch of new coins, I have listed several in the figure below. Except for ETHFI and ENA, two tokens with relatively strong Defi attributes and business models, the other two tokens of SAGA and OMNI infrastructure business have performed very averagely
This has a lot to do with market liquidity. For this reason, I also listed the representative MEME listed on Binance: BOME, which also performed poorly.
As expected, the leading Meme of TON series was launched in this issue.
7. So for us, where is the market opportunity to gamble❓
This opportunity undoubtedly refers to the re-gambling of new coins on Binance.
Let’s talk about the secondary market first: NOT Considering the above factors, it is undoubtedly too risky to take it up at the initial launch. It is very cost-effective to ambush TON in the short term, because it is very likely to be listed on Binance after this wave
Then in the primary market, it is of course no problem to target the TON ecosystem, but I have seen many projects that are doing similar models to NOT. Such projects are unlikely to continue to be listed on Binance. Finding projects in different sectors to interact can also gain some certainty
8. Why do I say that NOT is also bottom-up❓
Because it is based on a large number of gathering communities, this part of the community is of very low quality, and even has a lower threshold than the fair MINT of the original inscription
This way of logging into the secondary market, everyone has no community consensus on the token at all, and taking the money for safety may be the mainstream idea of the current so-called community
The launch of NOT is indeed very unexpected. It has been less than two quarters since the project was launched and logged into the secondary market, and the majority of the shares have been given to the community
Without going through the wash, it is hard to imagine that the market has so much liquidity to squander in the short term. Bottom-up construction cannot be separated from this step