The violent bull market is about to start! The shadow of interest rate hikes has dissipated, and the possibility of interest rate cuts has risen to 75%. How will Bitcoin go?
Entering May, the market of cryptocurrencies seems to have improved. First, GameStop led the MEME coin market, and then the April CPI data met expectations. The possibility of interest rate cuts has risen again. The big bull market in the currency circle is really coming.
Today, I will analyze the three major positive factors from the macro level:
1) First, CPI data is the most fundamental basis for the Fed to cut interest rates. In April, it rose by 0.3% month-on-month, lower than the expected 0.4%; it rose by 3.4% year-on-year, in line with expectations. Excluding the core CPI of food and energy, the month-on-month increase was only 0.3%, which is also the smallest month-on-month increase in the core CPI this year.
2) In addition, housing costs are also one of the factors affecting US consumer inflation in recent years. However, housing costs in April rose by 0.2% month-on-month, the slowest rate of increase in two years.
3) The slowdown in inflation indicates that the market will bring forward the Fed's interest rate cut to September. According to CME FedWatch, the probability of a US interest rate cut in September is about 75%.
In the next market, I think it will continue to fluctuate between 63,000 and 67,000 in the short term. After stabilization, it will break through 70,000 US dollars with the help of Bitcoin spot ETF or other good news. In addition, if it falls back to 61,000 to 63,000, don't panic, just choose the right time to buy low.
Finally, I would like to remind you of the risks. There are still two days left before the 519 incident. Of course, there will be no such plunge this year, but I still advise everyone to avoid it. Even if it is metaphysics, don't make random operations on 519.
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