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Let's discuss a topic: Should Web3 AI be considered as a Meme❓ This is a popular opinion after the rise of WLD. Coincidentally, I have talked about AI TAO and NOT (Meme) which will be launched in the past two days. Today, I will combine these two tracks to talk about I rarely publish Meme content. As I have expressed before, I prefer to issue some coins with basic business models. Whether it is VC or not, as long as there is a traceable trace of what they do Pure Memes are basically not included in this list. Only relatively mature Memes will consider subsequent "token empowerment" and other actions, which are based on a certain community cohesion and economic foundation "This is also a bottom-up development method" As for Web3 AI, most of what I have learned in the past few days, although it is not the very subversive or driving application of OPEN AI that everyone expects, at least it has done OPEN AI+ business "At least in terms of development trajectory, the two cannot be equated" But it is interesting enough that the current Web3 AI has an exogenous driving force, that is, the growth of secondary market tokens, which does not rely on its own project progress and business drive "On the contrary, it has a positive correlation with the progress of OPEN AI" That is to say, the progress of OPEN AI affects the progress of most Web3 AI projects. Many people say it is freeloading, but some projects are indeed undertaking and redeveloping the application market of Chat GPT But if we really talk about this kind of MEME, there is no problem. The most relevant example is Ultraman to $WLD . This relationship is also somewhat similar to Musk to $DOGE "Being kidnapped by ideals is the biggest obstacle to speculation" The above paragraphs do not have a core conclusion, but just put some phenomena I have observed. If you want to put a conclusion, you can also 👇🏻 (1) Those who understand AI can regard all current Web3 AI projects as memes affected by OPEN AI (2) Those who understand various Web3 paradigms can find more relevance to OPEN AI and resource endorsements with technological backgrounds based on business models (3) Pure meme players can also look for new Web3 Early AI projects are playing the role of a dog, and the game is about how the project can get on the AI ​​track (similar to the second point) Relatively speaking, we may be more concerned about what kind of returns Web3 AI can actually bring us. Of course, it does not rule out that some people hope that Web3 will give birth to disruptive applications, but with the current industry atmosphere and volume, I think it is not enough to support serious technology startup teams to do this (long-term trading) Working on the infrastructure level and adding a token system is what Web3 can achieve more easily at present. For example, data distribution, application construction distribution, data training distribution, etc...

Let's discuss a topic: Should Web3 AI be considered as a Meme❓

This is a popular opinion after the rise of WLD. Coincidentally, I have talked about AI TAO and NOT (Meme) which will be launched in the past two days. Today, I will combine these two tracks to talk about

I rarely publish Meme content. As I have expressed before, I prefer to issue some coins with basic business models. Whether it is VC or not, as long as there is a traceable trace of what they do

Pure Memes are basically not included in this list. Only relatively mature Memes will consider subsequent "token empowerment" and other actions, which are based on a certain community cohesion and economic foundation

"This is also a bottom-up development method"

As for Web3 AI, most of what I have learned in the past few days, although it is not the very subversive or driving application of OPEN AI that everyone expects, at least it has done OPEN AI+ business

"At least in terms of development trajectory, the two cannot be equated"

But it is interesting enough that the current Web3 AI has an exogenous driving force, that is, the growth of secondary market tokens, which does not rely on its own project progress and business drive

"On the contrary, it has a positive correlation with the progress of OPEN AI"

That is to say, the progress of OPEN AI affects the progress of most Web3 AI projects. Many people say it is freeloading, but some projects are indeed undertaking and redeveloping the application market of Chat GPT

But if we really talk about this kind of MEME, there is no problem. The most relevant example is Ultraman to $WLD . This relationship is also somewhat similar to Musk to $DOGE

"Being kidnapped by ideals is the biggest obstacle to speculation"

The above paragraphs do not have a core conclusion, but just put some phenomena I have observed. If you want to put a conclusion, you can also 👇🏻

(1) Those who understand AI can regard all current Web3 AI projects as memes affected by OPEN AI

(2) Those who understand various Web3 paradigms can find more relevance to OPEN AI and resource endorsements with technological backgrounds based on business models

(3) Pure meme players can also look for new Web3 Early AI projects are playing the role of a dog, and the game is about how the project can get on the AI ​​track (similar to the second point)

Relatively speaking, we may be more concerned about what kind of returns Web3 AI can actually bring us. Of course, it does not rule out that some people hope that Web3 will give birth to disruptive applications, but with the current industry atmosphere and volume, I think it is not enough to support serious technology startup teams to do this (long-term trading)

Working on the infrastructure level and adding a token system is what Web3 can achieve more easily at present.

For example, data distribution, application construction distribution, data training distribution, etc...

Disclaimer: Includes thrid-party opinions. No financial advice. May include sponsored content. See T&Cs.
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不要过于焦虑市场上新的高FDV现象,他们可能仅是未来熊周期的“钝刀子”~ 先说2个结论🔻 (1)考虑当前周期会倍所释放的份额更实际 (2)假融资以推高公开市场估值水平才是市场最大的原罪 📍可以看一项很简单的数据和客观事实,在21年Q1-22年Q3这个阶段正好是上轮周期市场最疯狂的阶段 此时的一级市场机构的估值其实是会受到市场情绪的影响,几乎用脚去做的 并且上一轮的资金活跃和市场上行,也催生了很多的新机构诞生于市场,这个观点我在前几天有关FDV的话题中有聊过,就不再重复 那一级市场到二级市场的估值水平会有所提高,也是一件很合理的事情,我们可以用Rootdata数据网站去检索这一阶段(21.03-22.10)的协议估值水平,在种子轮就已经有不少能上千万的估值了 这给后面的融资,提供了相对较高的估值参考 所以我们也很难把问题的原因直接推给交易所,这个不是交易所单方面说压就压的(无论是哪家)🔻 🗝️早期估值就动辄几亿十亿了,上线二级几十亿的FDV很正常,都不需要提上一轮,仅拿今年的几个例子来说👇🏻 (1)近期Farcaster一级估值已经干到十亿了,产品的用户趋势是还不错,但基于当前基本盘就估10亿,而且还是走到A轮了,我就很讶异 (2)Wordcoin的竞争对手,主打掌纹验证真人的一个协议,其创始人此前的项目就没有做起来,但就是有机构资源,现在估值也十亿了,目前也是任何盈利模型没有披露 (3)某个E开头的模块化流动性协议,也莫名其妙的到了B轮近10亿估值(8亿)了,上哪唠去 这个市场就是这么神奇,在还没运转的情况下就能融个两三轮,完全就是机构下场参与零和,估值全凭“市梦率” 但我们要考虑到对机构份额的锁定设计,我们也很难评本周周期究竟谁是市场最后的赢家 当然,其中肯定有做假融资信息的项目和轮次,仅仅是为了在公开市场推高市场预期,市场更大的原罪其实是这类项目,因为机构的实际成本将会更低更低🔺 📍据我推测,上面我所举的三个案例中,至少就有一个是假融资,因为对方的一些前科,很难相信未上线就能有这个估值水平 我们如何规避?除非你不参与市场,否则不要太在乎FDV这项指标给你的参考 市值基于流通去算,我们把本轮周期的新币未来释放列个列表拉出来,两年内可以释放超过40%的项目能有哪些?我相信不会多,具体的数据可以等我统计 那将本轮周期的实际最大平均流通作为本轮的远期目标就已经够了,很多人就对FDV有过度焦虑 实际上按照过往的经验,在本轮周期结束时的下行市场,未进入市场流通的VC份额会更难受,此时他们的实际持有价值在经历了一段上行行情后再回落,才会是延长熊市周期的“钝刀子” 注:数据素材源于之前BinanceResearch对于FDV和低流通的市场研报
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