The long-awaited US April unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released at 20:30 tonight, which may determine the next short-term and medium-term trend. Conventional logic is not optimistic, because in April, the performance of important components such as energy prices, rents and used cars was not very good, and CPI as a comprehensive index would not be very optimistic.

Let's take a brief look at the market performance after the last data release:

4.10 US March unadjusted CPI annual rate expected value 3.4% announced value 3.5% (down)

4.26 US March core PCE price index annual rate forecast value 2.7%, announced value 2.8% (down)

5.3 US April unemployment rate forecast value 3.8% announced value 3.9%

US April seasonally adjusted non-agricultural employment population (10,000 people) expected value 24.3 announced value 17.5 significantly lower than market expectations, starting employment rate cut mode expectations, (big rise)

5.9 Weekly initial jobless claims forecast value 21.5 announced value 23.1 (up)

5.11 US May one-year inflation rate expected value 3.2%, announced value 3.5% (down)

5.14 US April PPI monthly rate forecast value 0.3%, announced value 0.5% (Fall)

So when the data is released tonight, you can refer to the following logical judgment:

Previous value 3.5% Expected value 3.4%

If the published value is 3.6%, it is higher than the previous value 3.5% (Fall)

If the published value is 3.5%, it is lower than the previous value but higher than the expected 3.4% (Fall)

If the published value is 3.4%, it is consistent with expectations and lower than the previous value (Increase)

If the published value is 3.3%, it is lower than the expected and previous value (Increase)

Personally, I think it is less than or equal to but biased towards 3.4%. After all, Master Bao has repeatedly balanced water and managed expectations to this extent. The data is too good to immediately cut interest rates, which does not match the rhythm of the general trend, but it is obvious that the interval is very short now and it is swinging back and forth and is very anxious to cut immediately.

The market is indeed difficult to play. It is not recommended to gamble on big or small bets. If you are not sure, leave the market and wait and see. #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #5月市场关键事件 #大盘走势 #cpi