Glassnode, having analyzed on-chain metrics, doubts that the price of BTC will rise in the near future. This is discussed in the company's latest report.
Metrics show that the#BTCprice is going through a phase of consolidation and potential correction. And weak network activity and the possibility of panic selling may lead to a continued decline. Some of the indicators are still in the “positive zone” for growth. But some of them are at a turning point. And in the absence of signals about buyer activity, prices will begin to fall.
From important graphs and conclusions to them:
- Two-year miner income Z-Score. After the halving, miners’ income showed a noticeable surge. Including because of the hype with the Runes protocol. By the end of April, BTC miner earnings remained above historical norms. BUT recently the Z-Score turned negative for the first time in a month.
- Volume of exchange inflows. This figure peaked at the end of March and then went into a downward trend. Thus, the dynamics of revenues to CEX sites is slowing down. This can be interpreted as the asset's predisposition to shortages in the market. But it is also the lack of demand from buyers sufficient to ensure an increase in prices.
- Trend in supply of “profitable” coins. For BTC it continues to be upward, but locally it has begun to decline. Currently, fewer and fewer holders are in profitable positions, which may affect the sentiment of market players.
- Market value to realized value ratio (MVRV). The indicator is currently above the annual average. BUT the situation is beginning to change for speculators, the indicator is falling. And this is a factor in increasing selling pressure.
- Spent Output Profitability Ratio (SOPR). The indicator has shown a decline, and the monthly average has recently dropped below the annual average. This is a preliminary signal for now, but it is already being taken into account by market players.
- Ratio of realized profits/losses. During the recent corrective movements, realized losses increased significantly, particularly among recent buyers. If the asset price continues to decline, even impulsively, this may trigger panic sales.
Let us add from ourselves that the situation cannot yet be called critical, we are talking about probability. Now show the price of BTC rising above the turning points (currently in the zones of $63,000-64,000) and interest in purchases can quickly recover.