The result of bulls and bears calling each other idiots is that both sides lose money. Everyone is holding on desperately until one side admits defeat. This process is so satisfying for the dealer.
After four consecutive weeks of net outflows, the US ETF began to recover slightly last week, with a total inflow of 1,318 bitcoins, and the market's attention began to gradually rise. Currently, the global market holds a total of 949,756 bitcoins in the spot ETF, and the volume shows a cyclical upward trend.
From a macro perspective, this week is a big data week that connects the past and the future. The annual rate of US PPI will be released at 8:30 pm tomorrow, and Powell will give his views on the current economic situation again at 10 pm. The US CPI data for April will be released at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, and the vice chairman of the Federal Reserve will speak at 3 pm overnight. In the vacuum time window when interest rate hikes are terminated and interest rate cuts are discussed, the market itself has lost its self-leading ability, and the turning point of macro information will always make us hang in the balance.
After experiencing a narrow range of fluctuations last weekend, Bitcoin started to decline this morning, falling below 61,000 points in a small range. Ethereum fell below 2,900 points to around 2,860 points, and the altcoins fell by more than 10%. After the extreme panic, the market began to turn around at 2 pm. Bitcoin surged to 2,500 points, and Ethereum briefly broke through 3,000 points. The market sentiment gradually improved.
The short-term contrast in the market is essentially caused by the low liquidity of the current market. Yesterday, the daily transaction volume of the big cake on the chain was only 3,000. I remember that the last time this ultra-low volatility occurred was in the deep bear market at the beginning of last year. It is conceivable that the current market-cleaning force is so strong that the turnover rate of continuing to smash the market is already very low, and the return ratio of forcing it downward is already very uneconomical.
From a purely technical perspective, many high-quality coins, including the mainstream ones, have already formed head and shoulders bottoms, double bottoms, and even triple bottoms. The market has been trending downward. That is why I feel that such a trend is to press the technical leverage players to the ground, which is very ecstatic and has no temper.
As Uncle San said above, a decline without shipments is essentially a data dump, and the most intuitive need for data dumps is to cheat chips. At least after multiple rounds of strong support from the 60,000-point Bitcoin, I think this position is supported, and the injured copycat cannot change the fluctuation of the mainstream trend. At this position of Bitcoin, there is the average price support of ETF institutions above, and there is a motion that a large number of mining machines are on the verge of shutting down below. It will be very difficult to really dump it without a sufficient return ratio.
Short-term operations at this stage are also very challenging for your own position logic. In the past two days, many partners have asked whether to sell at a loss or hold on to the end in response to Wednesday's data? First of all, we need to make it clear that Wednesday's data has a great impact on the short-term market, but its impact on the bull market cycle is limited. In other words, the April CPI data can give a clear answer to whether the current decline has stopped or not, but it cannot affect the progress of the bull market.
Uncle San also said yesterday that the current macroeconomic situation is to decide when to start cutting interest rates based on the current inflation situation. We have already gone through the most difficult interest rate hike cycle. No matter when the interest rate cut begins during the interest rate cut cycle, the final result is that the interest rate cut will be implemented. There may be some pain during the period. When the data completely picks up, the Fed will definitely wield the big stick of interest rate cut without hesitation.
So back to the operation level, if you choose to sell at a loss, if CPI is positive, then the time to enter the market again is to wait for the market to completely reverse and chase the chips in the rising channel range; if the data is negative, then this wave of operations can be directly selected to buy back at the bottom. If you do not consider short-term market fluctuations and choose to firmly advance the bull market cycle, then continue to ignore short-term data fluctuations.
For the copycats, please pay attention to the huge unlocking this month, especially the ones like aveo which have no pattern at all, try to stay away from them. 752.36% of the circulation was released in one go, and the market value directly released 1 billion US dollars. Even Buffett is unwilling to take it. It is better to cut meat now than to scrape bones later. Similarly, the copycats have not followed the decline in recent days. I think it is necessary to take it aggressively. The most basic feature of the late stage of market adjustment is infinite panic.
Sell when everyone is talking, buy when no one is interested. When everyone thinks that the market is going to collapse and is finished, then this trend may really be coming to an end.
BTC: The support of 60,000 points of Bitcoin has been recognized by N rounds. In the short term, we will focus on this position at the bottom. On the top, we will focus on the pressure level of 64,000 points. If we can effectively break through this pressure range, the bearish sentiment in the market will be further released. We will not pay attention to it in the short term in the next two days as there are too many data.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin, with a daily support of 2760 points. Most of the recent bottom-fishing on the chain choose Ethereum between Bitcoin and Ethereum, probably considering the short-term cost-effectiveness, for reference only.
Shanzhai: If there are profits before the AI conference next week, sell them. If there are no profits and are trapped, wait for the good news in June, when the market should rise. At present, only consider buying SSV at the bottom. After all, it has reached the bottom position of the first purchase. The short-term risk is too great, so everyone should follow with caution.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #美国4月CPI通胀数据即将公布 #新币挖矿 #山寨币热点 #BTC走势分析 $BTC