Problems that most people are not aware of:
1. The sentiment of ETFs will catalyze the rise, but the incremental funds of ETFs in the short term are miniscule compared to the trading volume in the currency circle, so this matter is actually a trading expectation, and the impact will not be seen for a long time after the implementation.
2. The sentiment of interest rate cuts will catalyze the rise. In fact, the market has been trading interest rate cuts since the inflection point of the CPI data in October 2022. Look at the trend of stocks such as Tesla. We have been trading interest rate cuts for more than a year, and we are still trading. The excitement over the imminent rate cut is pure leek.
On the contrary, interest rate cuts are often accompanied by a weakening economy. At this time, Nasdaq is prone to decline in the early stages of interest rate cuts, because EPS cannot be stabilized and valuations are very high.
3. Most people’s macro forecasts are ridiculously wrong. At the beginning of 2021, no one thought that the Federal Reserve would be so late in raising interest rates. In 2022, no one expected that the economy would suddenly weaken. Similarly, at the end of 2022, most people thought that 23 The U.S. economy is still not doing well in 2020, and it will not get better until 24 years. What is the result? The economy was surprisingly good in 2023, but it became blurry in 2024.