Bitcoin (BTC)
This week, the price of BTC fell first and then rose. On a weekly basis, it has been five consecutive declines, highlighting the state of the market's profit-taking chips starting to clear after the suspension of ETF and halving speculation. At the same time, the decline of BTC naturally led to the overall decline of the crypto market, and the market's wealth-creating effect declined.
As of the time of writing, BTC's weekly high was $64,721, and its low was $56,573 in a short period of time. Currently, both bulls and bears are still competing for the $60,000 mark. Although the current price of the currency is supported by the 120-day moving average and the downward sentiment has temporarily stabilized, the high MACD dead cross has just appeared on the weekly chart, so we should not be overly optimistic about the market recovery in the short term.
Another reason that supports the current view is that because the Fed's interest rate cut expectations have been repeatedly postponed, market funds have become more cautious, and ETF funds have also seen large net outflows this week. In the current macro environment of tight liquidity, the withdrawal of funds will hit the market's bullish sentiment, which is also in line with the law that the market begins to pull back after the halving in the past.
In short, we believe that the long-term positive space for the bull market after halving is still to be effectively priced, but the short-term market outlook is not optimistic. At least in the current period of time, adjustments of long and short forces are needed to build momentum for the next market.
Ethereum (ETH)
From a fundamental perspective, ETH has performed poorly since the Cancun upgrade, lacking new innovations to drive it. On the other hand, BTC, Solana, and a number of new L1 ecosystems have developed rapidly, resulting in a slight decline in market share. This week, on-chain gas fees continued to fall below 6Gwei, and NFT sales in April were also surpassed by Bitcoin, highlighting the cold atmosphere after the strong market speculation. However, according to historical experience, whenever on-chain gas falls to the freezing point, the market outlook often sees a considerable rebound, so we still look forward to the recovery of the market.
It is worth mentioning that ETH/BTC has been in a weak downward trend for nearly a year and a half. In addition, the US SEC's review of its spot ETF has not been smooth, so the ETH price performance has not been too eye-catching.
In general, the gains of BTC and ETH in this bull market have exceeded past historical trends, and the subsequent upside will depend more on the ability of US economic policies to curb the strengthening of the US dollar.
In the coming period, we need to pay attention to the positive progress of new narratives such as modularization and Restaking, which will be an important driving force for ETH's recovery and strength.