More than 100,000 positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with long positions accounting for more than 90%. The Bitcoin price fell to a daily low of 56,500 points. The liquidation of long leverage was more thorough than the last time and almost exhausted. Market sentiment has gradually wavered from the bull market rebound.
From the on-chain data, it quickly pulled back after falling below 57,300 points. On the one hand, the reason is that there is no leverage liquidation for long positions at present. If they want to make profits on a large scale by liquidating long positions, the main force of the market crash needs to drop to around 52,000 points to get good returns. On the other hand, the average holding cost of the Wall Street Big Pie ETF is currently at 57,300 points. If it continues to fall, it will be a waste of time for them to play the ETF for three months.
The top of the retracement of Bitcoin has reached 23.3% so far. This data is basically consistent with the decline in the rebound relay of the previous bull market. The high point of the decline is about 30%. In terms of trend, it takes a lot of courage to continue to short in the near future. When the market falls sharply, people lose money. Uncle San will not exaggerate the panic here.
Compared with the decline of the altcoin and Bitcoin, Bitcoin has obviously had a larger daily retracement, and the altcoin is no longer falling as sharply as before. Except for the top ten currencies by market value, the decline of Bitcoin is all higher than that of Bitcoin. The data more clearly shows that the big drop during the day was a liquidation of Bitcoin.
At 3:00 a.m., the CZ incident finally came to an end, and the years-long charges were finally ended with a four-month sentence. These four months may eventually be carried out in the form of home detention. Overall, this wave of CZ is equivalent to spending money to settle the matter. Just looking at this drop, it seems more like we spent our money. Such a big drop did not sacrifice CZ to heaven, but buried a group of retail investors.
Of course, the above is just a joke. The impact of the CZ incident itself on the crypto market is currently limited. The emotional reasons are related to the recent series of macroeconomic negatives. The monetary policy meeting for May will be held overnight. The current poll interest rate remains basically unchanged, which is also in line with expectations after the repeated inflation last month. It is not expected to bring too much market volatility. The key point to pay attention to is Powell's speech. Politicians are evil, and her voice may really collapse the market again.
After that will be the important non-farm data on the 3rd, which will have a greater impact on the short-term market than the overnight interest rate decision. If the data is higher than expected, further downward movement is basically a foregone conclusion.
The market has come to this point, ignoring the previous multiple resistance positions and still wanting to clear the lever of the big cake. The main force's determination is firm. From the side, Sanshu can also see the strength of the market after the reversal, which is similar to the decline. Before inflation goes down and the high interest rate has not changed in nature, it is the most suitable layout node for the dog dealer. Sanshu said before that no matter how the interest rate cut is delayed, the market will self-adjust after the interest rate hike is stopped, and then the interest rate cut is a foregone conclusion, and the time point of the interest rate cut will be clearer as the event is delayed.
If we follow the rate of inflation decline at the beginning of the year, everyone believed that interest rates would be cut in June. Now the consensus is that the first interest rate cut will be made at the end of the year. The biggest impact on the market is that the bull market that was supposed to end in the first half of next year will be postponed indefinitely to the second half of next year. For most market participants, there will be no problem with the return ratio. The only difficult thing is the psychological fluctuations between the K-line jumps.
In recent weeks, ETFs have been experiencing a net outflow. BlackRock's pace has slowed down in line with the US stock market. After more than 100 trading days, the market needs a short break. It is expected that the inflow will increase as the US stock market recovers. There is really nothing to discuss about HK's Pie and Ethereum spot ETFs. The first-day transaction volume is not as large as that of a local dog on Sol. The difference in vision between Eastern and Western capital is obvious.
If you have to ask if the bull market is over? I will still tell you with certainty that it is not! In this bull market, only the big cake has gone a decent distance, the second cake has not reached a new high, and the high-quality cottage has not reached a new high. The bull market should be a hundred flowers blooming. Maybe this round of bull is indeed different. The seriously over-issued cottage has occupied a large part of the cottage liquidity and affected the rise of the entire sector, but this cannot cover up the unlimited rise of high-quality targets. Does the market value of a big cake affect its money-making ability?
BTC: Bitcoin's 60,000-point support confirmation went down without a chance to confirm, and the monthly line in April closed ugly. The market is in a short-term downtrend, so from a technical point of view, there is definitely no stop in the decline. Most of the stops of the trend market end with a fast wave of patterns, and Bitcoin is no exception. Therefore, if the point is still unable to support 57,300 points, it is possible to accelerate the decline to below 55,000 points, and even to 52,000 points. After clearing the long positions above 57,300 points, the next maximum profit point is 52,000 points. Of course, this position is now moving up in a small range. Some stubborn longs have begun to think that the decline has stopped and leveraged positions. In any case, if there is really an opportunity to go below 55,000 points, don't hesitate to push forward with as many chips as you have. If there is no opportunity, it is likely to extend the adjustment time and stop the decline with shocks. No matter what form it is, no matter where the final bottom is, just make a corresponding strategy. The market is so ugly. If you figure it out, study it for a few days first.
ETH: Ethereum is linked to Bitcoin again, with the daily support at 2760 points. Most of the recent bottom-fishing on the chain choose Ethereum between Bitcoin and Ethereum, probably considering the short-term cost-effectiveness. For reference only.
Finally, stay away from leverage and stock up on spot goods! #5月市场关键事件 #香港加密货币ETF #Megadrop #美联储利率决议即将公布 #以太坊ETF批准预期 $BTC