How long can the current market last?

It can be said that it will not be able to complete this month, but where it can go in the near future depends entirely on the funding side and is unpredictable. At present, BCH, the engine of this round of market, is about to die down, so the sustainability of this round of market will be under great pressure. In addition, the capital market faucet is continuously affected by the Fed's interest rate hike, so the overall situation cannot be seen for too long.

The Federal Reserve releases meeting minutes.

The minutes show that almost all participants believe that one or two rate hikes in the future are acceptable, and the probability of further rate hikes in July is as high as 88%. I don’t know if readers have a basic understanding of finance. If the Fed continues to raise interest rates, no matter whether the ETF is approved or not, no funds will enter the crypto circle (firstly, after it is approved, there is still a process to go through, and it will take several months for the real funds to come in;

Second, the traditional financial market has very professional investors. It is impossible for them to put their money into risky funds when the overall environment is tightening. Their risk aversion ability cannot be measured by the gambler mentality of the crypto circle). Therefore, in the medium term, this point will definitely prevent this wave of market conditions from continuing to ferment.

The position we seized yesterday was completely lost again in less than fifteen minutes. From the point of view, it did not fall much, but the back and forth harvest of long and short positions made the market sentiment bloody, which is why Uncle San has always advised everyone not to conduct leverage operations. In the eyes of the dog dealer, every leverage player is a sweet potato in their bowl.

Specifically, the number of ADP jobs in the United States increased by 497,000 in June, the largest increase since February 2022. The number of initial jobless claims in the United States for the week ending July 1 was 248,000, which was expected to be 245,000 and slightly exceeded the previous value of 239,000. As a result, the market unanimously believed that the US economy was strong and the probability of another 25 basis point rate hike in July was over 90%.

In addition, it is noted that the current US two-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.084%, reaching its highest level since 2007. I don't know if you have paid attention to it. At the beginning of the epidemic, when the money was printed, the value was approximately zero. At the moment when market liquidity continues to withdraw, the risk market has a short-term retracement of 1,500 points. In my opinion, it is still a normal phenomenon.

The negative macro factors, whether it is the interest rate hike or the withdrawal of liquidity from US bonds, have been discussed in great detail before. In any case, compared with the past, the market has gradually developed resistance to the negative impact brought by the current market, which is why many sectors are in a state of self-repair after the rapid insertion of the pin.

Regarding future market expectations, there is actually only one topic, which is when the adjustment will end, and then there will be a wave of accelerated rush, driving a new round of retail investors to enter the market with FOMO sentiment. Today's link with yesterday's door, the data at least tells us one very objective thing, that it is difficult for the current market to fall and not turn back.

The repetition of the market is the same as our level of cognition. Our cognition depends on the feedback from the news, and finally falls on the market trend. If we feel that our self-cognition leads to position losses in this process, then there must be cognitive bias. For example, the market unanimously believes that the application of Bitcoin spot ETF by institutions such as BlackRock is a super positive. They are looking forward to the expectations in the next three to five years. What does it have to do with our market situation in the next one or two days?

It is indeed difficult to operate at present, and it is difficult in a vicious cycle where the more you operate, the smaller your position becomes. I have always been following the expected position logic, which is not necessarily completely correct in the market, but it is definitely the most conservative. The simplest logic of cryptocurrency trading is to find a buying point to enter the market and a selling point to rest.

PoW is booming. Which privacy tokens are poised to take advantage of this?

The concept of POW has been very popular recently, so what are some potential altcoins worth paying attention to? Let's take a look from Mr. Crab's perspective:

Monero

Monero (XMR) is one of the leading privacy coins, focusing on providing untraceable transactions and unlinkable addresses.

It uses a technology called Ring Confidential Transactions (RingCT) to obfuscate transaction details and hide sender and receiver addresses. Monero achieves this by mixing multiple transactions together, making it difficult to determine the exact source or destination of the funds.

In addition, Monero has implemented stealth addresses, which generate one-time addresses for each transaction, further enhancing privacy protection. At the time of writing, the price of Monero's currency XMR is $167.5, and its historical high price was $542 on January 9, 2018.

Dash

Dash (DASH) is a privacy coin that provides both private and transparent transactions. It uses a two-layer network that allows users to choose private transactions or public transactions, providing flexibility.

Dash's privacy feature PrivateSend uses a decentralized mixing mechanism to obfuscate transaction details. It mixes transactions from multiple users, making it difficult to track individual funds. Dash's masternode network adds an extra layer of security and facilitates faster transactions.

At the time of writing, Dash’s coin DASH is priced at $33.78, with its all-time high being $1,493.59 on December 20, 2017.

PIVX

PIVX is a privacy-focused cryptocurrency that adopts several features from other privacy coins. PIVX utilizes a custom implementation of the Zerocoin Protocol called zPIV.

This will enable users to convert their regular PIVX coins into anonymous zPIV coins. These zPIV coins can then be used for private transactions, ensuring complete privacy.

At the time of writing, PIVX’s token price is $0.22, with its all-time high being $13.56 on January 10, 2018.

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