Analysis of Bitcoin market:
I don't like to use the support line anymore. Friends who have been paying attention should find that the golden support of 61,200 has been extended from last week to now, especially at present, it has indeed been supported, but the sad thing is that the support is no different from paper in the decline. Although there is a rebound, it is also a slow rebound after an effective break. Its support strength, rebound strength and speed are all lower than my personal expectations, so the effectiveness of this support is also relatively low.
I didn't want to talk about the support below, so as not to scare everyone, but from a technical point of view, the only effective support below is the weekly large-scale support near 56,000. Of course, although this support is far away from the current price, it may not be directly reached in the short term. Under the premise of no major negative news, there is no need to worry about the so-called short-term waterfall. The 60,000 integer mark support below should stimulate certain buy orders, and it should consolidate.
The upper rebound resistance has moved down, and the monthly resistance and daily resistance are parallel, currently around 64,500, which brings greater pressure to the short-term price breakthrough and rebound of Bitcoin later.
The only good news on the technical side is that the RSI relative strength index has fallen below 30, which theoretically triggers an oversold rebound. However, this is only a technical theory. Whether it can rebound and whether the rebound strength is favorable still depends on market sentiment.
In the short term, everyone should pay attention to the risk of support breaking. We will immediately look at changes in market data and funds.
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Since today is the last trading day of this month, and the US stock market is also pessimistically expecting that the Fed's speech on Wednesday will stick to the hawkish speech, the US stock market is currently pessimistic.
Last night, the US stock market finally closed with gains driven by technology stocks and some profitable companies. Yesterday, Tesla rose the most under the stimulation of the Chinese market, but the current market fell slightly. The overbought correction is normal, but combined with the overall stock market sentiment, the stimulus brought by the earnings cycle has been significantly weakened.
Today is the day for Amazon's earnings release, but Amazon's pre-market gains are small, and the sentiment is obviously low. In the early morning, MSTR's earnings report was as we expected. Because the price of Bitcoin fell, the earnings report was not as expected. At present, the stock price closed slightly higher, but fell 7% before the market. According to the current situation, Apple's earnings report on Thursday will not be too ideal.
Last week, we talked about a topic. Although the earnings report can make the stock price go out of the market alone, it is also a magic mirror for the market to re-evaluate the company. At present, this earnings cycle is not ideal, the US stock sentiment is falling, and the economic policy is not ideal.
Today's Asian stock market performed well. Both Nikkei and Hang Seng closed higher, while A-shares fell slightly.
Due to the market's expectations for the Fed's hawkish speech on Wednesday, the US dollar index rose again to 105.9, close to 106. The 10-year US Treasury yield rose slightly to 4.657%.
International gold fell slightly, international crude oil prices remained stable, and international sugar fell slightly on a single day to maintain a stable price.
The yen, which has been paid more attention to recently, also fell again after rebounding at the weekend. Currently, the yen exchanged for RMB and the dollar have weakened slightly. The yen is still circulating and expanding at a low price.
The CME Bitcoin futures index is around 61,600, and continues to maintain a 500-point positive premium with the spot. This is in line with the rising sentiment of the 300-point positive premium in the afternoon, indicating that after touching the key support, the bullish sentiment is still obvious.
Bitcoin's decline in the evening quickly broke through the key support. Although it is rebounding now, the strength of the support and the speed of the rebound are obviously weak, and the market sentiment is also weak.Later on, there will be an analysis of the Bitcoin market.
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