Let the data speak: Comparison of last Friday's data and capital changes
The current market data has not changed much compared to last Friday, whether it is market value, transactions or funds.
First of all, in terms of market value, although Ethereum has not successfully driven the overall upward trend of the market, the data performance is still temporarily strong, while the altcoin is in a weak position following the trend of Bitcoin. The market share of Ethereum has eaten up the share of altcoins and Bitcoin.
The transaction volume has increased slightly, and the market liquidity is still insufficient. In the stage of sideways fluctuations, the lower liquidity represents the market sentiment brewing. By observing the weekend data, the transaction volume slowly resumed growth with Monday.
In terms of funds, Monday is not optimistic at present. The on-site funds increased by 100 million, and the net inflow of off-site funds was 76 million US dollars. In terms of off-site funds, although it was a net inflow compared to last Friday, according to the capital data we observed over the weekend, in fact, Asian and American funds flowed in over the weekend, while according to the capital data on Monday, funds were flowing out slightly. Especially US funds, they have returned to the state of capital outflow on the eve of the opening of the US stock market. Now we just hope that funds can flow back after the US stock market closes. If the funds do not flow back, the help that the US stock market currently brings to the crypto market will be weakened, and it will instead suck money from the crypto market.
Because it is Monday, the data has not fully started. Tomorrow we will focus again on data changes, especially changes in funds. Tonight, the US stock market opened well. The only thing we need to determine now is whether the US stock market has played a positive role in driving the crypto market, or whether it has formed a short-term capital sucking.
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For the current Bitcoin market, with the shock and decline, the market is not optimistic. The short-term stabilization is only driven by emotions.
First, let's look at the short-term rebound resistance level, 64,000 monthly resistance level, 64,800 daily resistance level. As the daily resistance level has been moving down since last week, it also proves that the daily trend has become a downward trend. The advantage of the downward movement of the resistance level is that it is conducive to the rebound distance of short-term prices, but the disadvantage is also very obvious. As the resistance moves down, once it coincides with the monthly resistance level, this stage will lead to stronger resistance to short-term price rebound. At present, 64,000-64,800 needs stronger strength in the rebound breakthrough.
The support below is actually less optimistic. At present, the effective support below the technical level is only around 61,200 in the short term. I have mentioned this support many times before. It is the gold support level. At the same time, the support of the three-day Bollinger band lower line has been added. If this position is broken, the so-called integer support around 60,000 below is still relatively weak, and there may be a short-term rebound in the sentiment of the integer level, but if it is really broken effectively, it will be a drop in the bucket.
The more pessimistic view is that the real effective support below is around 55,000-56,000, that is, once it falls below 60,000, there will still be a lot of room below.
Of course, the space for the decline below I mentioned is cyclical, not that it will fall directly to this position in the short term, so seeing this, many friends don’t need to panic, and we can make adjustments at any time with the decline in each stage.
At present, the only thing we can rely on for the rise of Bitcoin is the positive effects brought by the US stock market. We hope that the rise of the US stock market can bring positive optimism and help the price of Bitcoin rebound. Of course, if every rebound of Bitcoin cannot effectively break through and stand firm at the key resistance level, the bullish sentiment will gradually be weakened, thus forming a legitimate rebound and decline trend.
The RSI relative strength index has fallen to around 30 points, basically reaching the oversold rebound sentiment. With the rise of US stocks tonight, pay attention to the rebound sentiment of Bitcoin and the key resistance level.
We will use data to speak later.
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