Macroeconomics and news:
Today, the United States released GDP data. GOD is in recession, the job market is performing well, the number of initial jobless claims has decreased, and PCE in the first quarter is seriously overheated. Jokingly speaking, I feel that the United States needs to raise interest rates again. Of course, this is a joke. The possibility of the United States raising interest rates is very small, unless it wants to explode.
However, judging from today's data, it is in line with the most desired result of the Federal Reserve. The economy has landed softly, economic growth has slowed down, employment data has performed well, and inflation is under pressure but is gradually decreasing. These are all signs of a soft landing.
However, the release of the data has basically greatly reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts again, because if the economy is moderately declining and inflationary pressure is reduced, it is in line with the expectation of interest rate cuts, but once the economic recession accelerates and inflationary pressure increases, it is not in line with the interest rate cut environment. The release of this data is obviously to maintain the strength of the US dollar and reduce the market's expectations for interest rate cuts.
The opening of the US stock market accelerated its decline, and the financial reports of technology stocks this week were not very optimistic, and did not save the downward trend of the US stock market. According to my expectation, the US stock market will not collapse so easily before the full interest rate cut. However, now it seems that the United States has chosen to protect the exchange rate or the U.S. stock market.
Under the premise of poor performance of the U.S. stock market, the crypto market has fallen again, and the U.S. funds have been in a state of net outflow recently. The U.S. stock market has weakened, the U.S. macroeconomic situation has deteriorated, and the interest rate of U.S. bonds has remained high. All these factors have led to a decline in the willingness of risk market traders to invest in risk.
I hope that the U.S. stock market will rebound tomorrow at the close of this week, so that the risk market sentiment can stabilize.
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Today's data adds stablecoin data.
According to today's data, the largest decline in market value in the decline of Bitcoin is still the cottage market, followed by Ethereum, and then Bitcoin. After a few days of active stabilization, the cottage market has seen a retracement of gains again. As optimism about US stocks turns to disappointment, the mood of the cottage has changed significantly.
In terms of trading volume, as the decline, the trading volume gradually increases, and the market is not blindly pessimistic. There is still buying power in the decline. If the trading volume continues to increase in the subsequent consolidation and decline, it proves that as the price falls, the purchasing power of traders increases, which can be regarded as a disguised decline to activate purchasing power. However, the cottage market is indeed shrinking and falling, and the pessimism of the cottage is still strong.
In terms of funds, the retained funds on the market increased by 200 million, and the net inflow of off-site funds was 180 million, of which Asian funds inflow was 330 million, continuing to inflow steadily, and the net outflow of US funds was 150 million, continuing the outflow of funds this week. At present, with the market falling, there is still no sign of US funds returning. Currently, only the Eurasian market is supporting the price of Bitcoin. If we want Bitcoin to rebound significantly, we still need the power of US traders.
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