This is a very interesting topic discussed in my Fubao group. Group members also gave their indicator reference ideas. I think it is very interesting, so I will write about it. The insider trading here can be regarded as smart money. Why not follow the smart money to make some stable profits?
Please note the time I wrote this.
1. Prerequisites
Many kols are saying that insider trading is rampant on Binance. I don’t know whether the so-called insider trading exists, but the data can show that smart money exists. I don’t know whether these are insider trading or not.
A known:
1. $FDUSD exist$BNB The price before IEO starts will be lower than USDT, and the price after Binance IEO starts will be higher than USDT. The price difference is about 0.6%, and FDUSD is free of handling fees, so there is arbitrage space.
2. From the backtest data, we can see that the average increase one day before and one day after the start of IEO is about 4.7-6.2% (depending on the bull and bear markets). So if you follow these insider traders and get an increase of about 5 points, it will be very attractive if you combine it with the contract.
2: How is a insider trading position established?
Some insider traders use FDUSD spot to build positions for arbitrage, and then dig for IEO for fun. These are not very feasible for us.
Bnb’s insider trading is often established through contracts, which can be supported by backtesting data.
For example: I wrote in the early days of the Fubao Group$RVN This old coin has been on the list of price increase several times, but I won’t pretend to be cool since I haven’t written about it on Twitter.
For example, two days before RVN rose, it continued to be on the list and remained above 300%.
Even before BTC rises, there will be such data, which is OI/VOL.
The above ideas are the trading system of the Fubao group members, so I will use this to think about whether these can be used on bnb. I also opened a long order on bnb the night before $OMNI went online for new coin mining, and reminded the group members who provided this indicator.
At that time, the indicator was 97%, which was not particularly high, and I just tried it.
3: How to verify?
Before we verify this, we need to think about two questions:
If you were a insider trader, where would you open your business?
If you want to catch insider trading, where is more representative?
First of all, we found that a large number of insider trading was actually during the IEO period. Even if there was insider trading on Binance, it would not have a big impact on BNB. If I were a rat boss, I would definitely not open a platform on Binance, because the anti-corruption measures of Binance are too strict, and you would not be able to find evidence if I opened a platform on other platforms.
If I want to verify, I will also verify on other platforms with bnb futures, because the contract trading volume of these platforms is very low without insider trading. I found several cex, taking#bybitas an example:
4: Subsequent thoughts.
So can I write a robot to grab the bybit contract position data, and then become a short-term short seller myself? Here I need to think about a few questions as the robot's judgment conditions:
1. The insider trading will not always be opened in bybit. It can be opened in exchanges with contracts such as bitmex or bingx. How to capture the relevant positions? I can capture the OI/VOL data through coinglass and calculate the position direction through the long-short ratio.
2. Opening a long position in a perpetual contract requires spot support, otherwise you may be liquidated. Some exchanges usually do not reserve BNB spot. Can you borrow BNB through a lending platform such as XVS?
3. After Binance starts the locked BNB airdrop, the BNB liquidity decreases. Will the increase in IEO increase?
If the above conditions are met, I can become the insider trading of the big guys. I have already back-tested once and calculated the insider trading.
Now you understand why it took me so long to bring up this method after $OMNI, and why I kept saying #bybit.
