After the non-farm data, what is the trading point in the market?
Rate cuts, recession?
The interest rate cut is more certain and fierce, is it a good thing?
Sam's Law is triggered, the economy is in recession, and the US stock market crash is bad news?
Why are @LordWilliamUK and I bashing Powell?
This article mainly discusses the systematic thinking on tonight’s trading points. I feel that I am not sure about it, but I still need to write down the path of thinking for everyone to diverge.
Before discussing the above issues, let's take a look at my recent trading ideas. First, let's take a look at this stupid order, which I opened before the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting.
The reason why I call it stupid is that I opened the order when I was watching the 12H top and back K-line of Bitcoin and its weakness, and covered the position when $SOL reached 160. This order was basically a real order, but I did not talk about it in the community.
Being able to make a small profit is a lucky thing, nothing great.
The reason for this is that I have been too busy with work recently and have no time, and the technical side is too bad. The macro side of my trading and trading expectations are:
Powell basically hinted at a rate cut in September in his answer to reporters' questions, which is an overall positive for dollar-denominated assets.
The US stock market is rising, the market is jubilant, but cryptocurrencies are not rising. (I trade both US stocks and cryptocurrencies)
The reason for this is that the outflow of Grayscale has not yet been completed, and its reflexivity will lead to a subsequent rebound, because the dovish remarks are beneficial to the overall situation.
Based on the macro expectations, I still opened a lot of $SOL. The subsequent covering of positions or anything else are all trading techniques and there is nothing much to say.
Looking at the data the next day, the seven sisters of the US stock market rose, while technology and Russell were not sensitive.
Can we speculate that the current market is more willing to attribute big pie to technology stocks or small-cap stocks?
The trading expectations on the eve of the non-farm payrolls were all due to Powell's arrival, but the non-farm payrolls took a completely opposite approach from market traders.
Can't help but wonder, is Old Abalone trying to ruin Dengzi's last bit in one go to show his goodwill to Chuanzi?
And end the interest rate hike cycle in a failed way?
When looking ahead to the non-agricultural data, I tend to bet that the employment rate will remain unchanged and the employed population will increase. Don't simply look at the good or bad news of the Golden October here, because market expectations have changed greatly, and this change is all done under the vagina of the old abalone.
When a reporter asked Powell about the upcoming Sam's Law on unemployment, I listened to Powell's original words and images at the time.
Old Abalone flipped through his notes, rolled his eyes, and said that Sam's Law was a rule based on statistics and did not make any conclusive opinions on the direction of the US economy.
The significance of this is that the Federal Reserve has good employment, low inflation, and no recession, giving the market extremely strong expectations.
In addition, he does not need to reach 2% to cut interest rates, and he emphasizes the employment issue more.
In order to clarify the guidance for the September interest rate cut, the premise for opening the window for the September interest rate cut is to manage expectations based on non-agricultural employment:
Sam's Law has not been triggered (no recession), and the number of employed people has increased slightly (good employment).
However, the Non-Agricultural Data went completely in the opposite direction just a few days apart, deviating from expectations.
A very smart person here would ask, he is just fooling you with words, and you believed it, are you an idiot?
If the United States enters a recession before the interest rate cut cycle begins, it means that the interest rate hike cycle is meaningless.
And abalone is doing this now, causing extreme panic in the market.
What impact does the above have on Bitcoin and what are its trading expectations?
Moreover, the current time point is extremely disgusting, and it is also the time when I complain bitterly about the old abalone and the rotten fart Yan.
The market believes that we are currently entering a recession. If the market is defined by technology stocks, then in a trading recession, the market will fall along with technology stocks.
If we define bitcoin as a safe-haven asset, in the case of gold, there is no negative impact on gold in the current situation of interest rate cuts, recession, and geopolitical factors.
The subtle point about the timing is that it is the weekend and other transactions cannot be made. Only our brother Bing has to bear all the responsibilities.
The most critical factor in choosing a method is ETF funds.
Among the current U.S. stocks, only Apple and Coca-Cola have been bought after falling.
I don’t know if it’s Mr. Buffett.
The current situation is more like the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy period, which was also the time when we were in a continuous trading decline at the end of 2023.
Is there anyone coming out to rescue the market? Will ETF-based foundations make that choice?
Will the Federal Reserve use whatever means necessary to put all the economic responsibility on Deng?
I'm not sure, just wait and see.
