April 23 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

Large bets on ETH doomsday call options, the probability of short-term decline is further reduced

I. Core Views

1-From the perspective of BTC spot ETF inflows and option implied volatility, superimposed on short-term funding rates, the risk of a sharp drop in the near future is relatively low

2-Buy 13,000 ETH call options naked, we deploy a spread strategy, with higher tolerance (see planet)

3#Solanaspot price climbs, implied volatility is also at the 75th percentile, continue to short volatility to reduce holding costs (BIT option training camp prompt point) [Yesterday in the private class, it was also prompted that Sol spot has an increased probability of rising, and it is not suitable to use call chasing]

II. Large transaction tips

BTC has 3 large positions, namely (the first large diagonal strategy is mainly long far-end Vega):

buy BTC-27DEC24-80000-C + sell BTC-28JUN24-75000-C

buy BTC-3MAY24-70000-C

buy BTC-26APR24-70000-C

The most noteworthy thing about ETH yesterday is this 13500 buy bullish position:

buy ETH-26APR24-3400-C

sell ETH-26APR24-3000-P + buy ETH-26APR24-3200-P

Sol had 2 positions yesterday, both of which were greater than 1500 (prompted in the planet)

III. Copycat options

#DogeImplied volatility is in decline, and the spot price has been sideways for a long time. We will choose the opportunity to go long on volatility;#KasImplied volatility fell back to 75 Within the percentile, we will use call options to bet later to increase returns, and make some spreads on the bearish side to recover costs.

IV. Macro capital market

One of the most important questions for global investors at present is whether the US stock market, especially the technology stocks represented by the Nasdaq 100, has peaked?

Combined with the trend of the US stock market in the past month or so, I think the probability of judging whether the market sentiment of AI has peaked should be much higher than 80%. If I have to estimate a number by slapping my head, I think it may be 95%.

In terms of the current interest rate environment, valuation level and performance growth, if the Nasdaq 100 cannot tell a more exciting story than AI, then the Nasdaq 100 is likely to peak along with the market sentiment of AI.

Based on the key judgment of whether the US stock market has peaked, in fact, a medium- and long-term strategic asset allocation thinking is often more important than the short-term fluctuations in the price of a small category of assets.

I wonder what you readers think.