July 10 Crypto Options Market Research Report
ETF event is asking for a release, the implied volatility on the bullish option side is the first to fall; can the landing force exceed expectations?
I. Core Views
1- Last week, the private class specifically used the ETH ETF event as an example to talk about event-driven implied volatility prediction. It is about to open. Let's see if it is accurate?
2- If you are an option veteran, you will find that IV and RV have changed significantly in the past two weeks. The mid-to-long-term VRP is increasing, and there is a good short vega expectation
3- At the spot level, BTC's ETF has been in a buying state, basically smashing during the Asian session, and the US stock market opens ETF to buy the bottom; although it is in a bear market from a technical perspective, I pay more attention to the fundamental options and still maintain +delta
4- In terms of copycat options, several long-term trading targets ordi iv are at the highest level. Compared with the current overall price, weekly options have the highest cost efficiency; from a fundamental perspective, sol and ton have continued to work hard recently, and continue to be optimistic.
Summary: For bullish view, short vega can be moderately traded; alt options mainly trade the strike price within the month. (Question from the planet if you don’t understand)
2. Block trade
BTC has a large put-end short vega position of 400 coins at the end of the year; more than 200 long call spread positions
sell BTC-27DEC24-60000-P
buy BTC-30AUG24-66000-C + sell BTC-30AUG24-69000-C
ETH block trade has an interesting strategy of 2500 positions, double selling ETFs through period calls, betting sell news
sell ETH-12JUL24-3050-C + sell ETH-19JUL24-3050-C
sol rare block trade (prompt in the planet)
3. Macro market
US stocks:
Yesterday, Powell rarely gave a neutral answer at the hearing. My subjective judgment is to prepare the market for interest rate cuts. Players who are still chasing technology stocks in the market should be careful. I still want to return to the familiar long-term US bonds. (I wrote 5-6 in-depth articles in the planet last year, and will update them further recently. tmf \tlt) I also sold Tesla. Short-term sentiment is overheated, and I avoid risks.
A shares:
The mid-month meeting determined the "determination" of long-term reforms, and the end-of-month meeting determined the "intensity" of short-term stimulus.
The volatility of options is at an extremely low level in many years, and it is unreasonable to be too calm on the eve of major events. A ship that has lost its anchor seems to be stable on the water, but in fact it will capsize at the slightest wind and waves. Although history will not repeat itself completely, it always rhymes with the same footing. I will still bet on 300 broad-based calls.
