Halving is a neutral event in the short term

- If the price rises before halving, it can be regarded as a positive realization and may be adjusted back.

- If the price falls before halving, it can be regarded as the negatives are exhausted and the stock price may rebound.

Positive factors: lower inflation rate.

Negative factors: miners shut down and the price of coins rises. To ensure profitability, miners may sell Bitcoin to purchase more efficient mining machines to hedge risks.

Review of previous halving events:

2012: The stock price fell 50% before halving.

2016: The stock price fell 40% before and after halving.

2016: 30% before halving, 27% after halving.

2020: 62% before halving.

2024: 19% before halving, after halving?

Market forecast: This time may be similar to the halving in 2016, and the wash period runs through the period before and after halving. At that time, the stock price fell before halving, rebounded for a few days after halving, and then fell again. Currently, the stock price has only fallen by 19%, which is far from the extent of the previous years' washout, and has not reached the price of most miners' shutdown coins, so I think it has not fallen through. But I expect there will be a short rebound before the next round of decline. This rebound may make retail investors expect a rapid rise to a new high after the halving, and miners take the opportunity to ship and make a profit. The reasonable target of this rebound is to rise to 68,000 in the short term, then fall to 52,000 to build a bottom, and then rise to 85,000.#比特币减半