The previous bull markets all broke through the previous high six months after the Bitcoin halving, and then continued for a year.
The cyclical pattern of the cryptocurrency market is three bears and one bull.
This round of bull market started when Bitcoin broke through 40,000 last year. During this period, it also brought a new narrative, the Bitcoin ecosystem, which naturally includes inscriptions.
Before the halving day, Bitcoin had already broken through the previous high several times. From March 2 to April 12, it took a full month to break through the high point of the previous bull market.
This is naturally due to external factors such as ETFs, but the more powerful factor is the internal factor: the storage value of Bitcoin is widely recognized, and the external factor works through the internal factor.
Many wealthy people have begun to recognize the storage value of Bitcoin and are willing to store part of their assets in Bitcoin, the world bank.
This is what led to the situation that Bitcoin broke through the previous high before the halving date. This is the only time in Bitcoin's trend.
Bitcoin has fallen 15% from its peak, and many altcoins have fallen 50%. Before this cycle, it was normal for Bitcoin to rise or fall 10% a day. I saw it almost once a week from 2019 to 2020. Now I haven’t seen this kind of scene once in the past year. There have been only three times with an amplitude of more than 10%, of which two were increases and one was a decrease.
This is enough to show that the Bitcoin pool has been getting bigger and bigger, from a small pond to a big lake, and from a big lake to a small ocean. In time, Bitcoin will definitely be an ocean. At this time, a 5% rise or fall in a day may only happen 2-3 times a year.
The longer this bull market lasts, the higher the price of Bitcoin will be, and it will completely make up for the underdeveloped bull market in the previous round.
I'm just bored, so I'll guess how the market will develop.
After the halving, Bitcoin first dropped to 51,000, and then stagnated between 51,000 and 60,000 for two months. Then the time came to June 20.
Bitcoin started to rise for 2 months and reached 90,000 dollars. The time came to August 20th
Then it dropped to $70,000, and after a month, it continued to rise to $100,000. It was September 20th.
Then it continued to fall to $85,000, and after half a month, it came to October 5th.
Then the price of Bitcoin will soar to 150,000, which will take 3 months until January 5, 2025.
Since the bull market will last for a year after the halving, the bull market will most likely last until around May.
In the last 4 months, Bitcoin will continue to rise to around 200,000. The peak of the bull market usually lasts for 2 months.
That is to say, the Bitcoin bull market trend will last until May next year, and it will break through 200,000 in March next year and stay there for 2 months.
If the bull market has not ended in May and a double top appears, it is very likely that the price will reach 300,000 US dollars in October-December 2025. The last top will not last for 2 months, and it will basically end in 15-20 days.
I say this because many people are worried about the current pullback and whether the bull market is over.
The current correction is very healthy, and the longer the bull market lasts, the better. If it can last until the end of 2025, 300,000 bitcoins is not impossible.
It is not impossible for Bitcoin to reach 200,000 by May next year.
If the bull market can only last until the end of this year, then the price of Bitcoin will most likely be around 120,000 to 150,000.
After the halving, the hardest asset on earth will be born, and Bitcoin will become the hardest asset with a hardness exceeding that of gold.
I am really looking forward to seeing what kind of changes the hardest assets will bring about.
Compared with gold, Bitcoin's convenience, storage and transmission value can be said to be completely defeated by gold. It is only a matter of time before it surpasses gold.
The private key of Bitcoin is like a space ring in a fantasy novel, which can store countless wealth. Bitcoin has indeed realized this function.
It rose to 300,000 US dollars, which is less than half of the price of gold. It is not an exaggeration to say that it is on par with gold.
If it reaches 600,000, it will basically be equal to gold, and if it reaches 1 million, it will surpass gold. This day may come in the next 10 years.
During this period, if it is not the fourth quarter of 2025, I do not recommend any high-selling and low-buying strategies.
If it reaches 150,000 US dollars and you want to sell it to improve your life, then just sell it. After all, a happy life is the most important thing.
If you start playing the game of selling high and buying low now, the profit will be very small, the risk will be unlimited, and it will develop your short-sighted habits.
Once a person becomes short-sighted, it is difficult for him to accomplish anything. Doing anything requires patience and time.
Buying low and selling high will make your patience decrease, especially after you have successfully done it several times. This is the most fatal thing.
Even if Bitcoin has clearly told you that if you hold on to it, you will be able to obtain tremendous wealth in the future, you still cannot handle it.
Please believe me, everything I said is wrong.
I have finished writing, keep it up. I am a masseur in Circle B, an old investor who sincerely wishes you to get rich in the cryptocurrency circle.