Market summary:
After the geopolitical conflict has cooled down, the market has gradually warmed up. Judging from the data, it has gradually improved. The capital inflow is also good, but it is still uncertain whether it can successfully break through the key resistance level. This aspect still requires the efforts of American traders.
Regarding the issue of US interest rate cuts, the Fed's QT action has also eased, but it does not rule out the continued hawkish remarks to intimidate the market. The risk market was originally guided by various US remarks and data. Now with the escalation of geopolitical issues, there are many unstable factors.
In general, if geopolitics causes a sharp decline in the risk market, the Fed will loosen its tone to boost it. If the market is too optimistic, the Fed does not recommend using hawkish remarks to intimidate it again. Before the Fed really cuts interest rates, the risk market may experience painful torture. Everyone should have good psychological expectations.
For traders, the difficulty of recent contracts will be greatly increased, and for spot traders, it is basically no problem to reasonably set a risk line for themselves, reasonably match spot within the risk line, and extend the profit cycle.
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In terms of geopolitics, the Middle East, Russia and Ukraine, the Far East, and the South China Sea are all unstable factors, but at present, no one should want S3 to start. This should be the default consensus. However, the current geopolitical sentiment will still have a great impact on the risk market. However, at present, as long as it is not directly S3, the impact on the crypto market should be getting smaller and smaller. The same is true for the risk market.
The risk market is based on emotions and expectations to determine the price. The same negative emotions and news will always have the greatest effect in the first time, and will become smaller and smaller in the second and third times. If S3 is not started, then basically, no matter how serious the geopolitical conflict escalates, the risk market will slowly adapt to this rhythm, but the overall sentiment will still not be too optimistic. Excessive tension will still limit the enthusiasm of the risk market.
The US interest rate cut has been greatly reduced. The most optimistic market expectation is the first interest rate cut in September, the least interest rate cut this year. And the Fed is ready to enter QT, which also consolidates the rebound of market sentiment after a significant reduction. However, we are still not completely sure whether the Fed's interest rate cut is in line with market expectations. The best way at present is to determine the interest rate cut cycle after the release of the June monetary minutes.
The current abnormal state of the US economy, coupled with the decline in domestic productivity, the disadvantages of foreign wars or proxy wars, and the decline in global confidence in the US dollar will all be important factors affecting the Fed's interest rate cut. Of course, in order to maintain the strength of US stocks, the AI narrative will continue to ferment, which may be the last life extension for US stocks before the interest rate cut.
The current QT preparation may be to help the Fed do an advance test of the interest rate cut, test how the market and the US economy react, and once there is a deterioration, the interest rate cut will be adjusted.
Before starting to cut interest rates, the US goal should be to maintain the strength of the US dollar and US stocks, while greatly reducing the market's optimism about the interest rate cut, and ensure the healthy development of the US economy in terms of data, and then work hard to stimulate the recovery of the production industry. If Trump comes to power, he will do a better job of these tasks.
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