Goldman Sachs analysts do not believe in BTC growth after halving. Why not wait for him?
Without kidding, let's remember the forecasts about the NON-growth of#BTCfrom #JPMorgan, which they gave in November 2023 and February 2024. Systematically stating the lack of capital inflow and “impulsive decisions of retail investors”, and not the influx of money from institutions. What happened next is known to everyone.#GoldmanSachswrites that the past#Bitcoinhalving itself did not serve as a catalyst for bullish movements and macro factors likely played a role.
According to the bank's experts, further growth of#BTCmay depend on the influx of funds into spot ETFs.
This time, ahead of the current halving, Goldman Sachs advises not to compare it with the reaction of markets in past cycles for the following reasons:
- The macroeconomic environment is very different from previous cycles and is characterized by high inflation and high interest rates.
- The volume of money supply of the world's largest central banks (US Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, People's Bank of China) increased rapidly in past cycles, but now there is no growth.
Goldman Sachs also reminds how many days passed before reaching a new ATH after the next halving:
- following the results of the first halving, a new ATH was established after 371 days,
- based on the results of the second - after 525 days,
- based on the results of the third - after 181 days.
What is different about the current cycle is that the ATH was reached even before the halving. Just on the topic of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
