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What happens after the #Bitcoin halving? 1-12) A mere two days away, the Bitcoin halving has sparked a self-fulfilling prophecy. Google Trends has ‘Bitcoin Halving’ at its highest ‘search scale’ ever (score 100 vs. the 2020 #Bitcoin halving search score of 60). Social media ‘analysis’ has consistently claimed that every prior halving has been bullish for the price of Bitcoin. While the price rally may not be immediate, we are focused on when, not if. 2-12) When we analyzed all the previous #Bitcoin cycles, we realized that prices do not move randomly and that Bitcoin is such a powerful invention because of the incentives structured around it. That’s why pre- and post-halving price developments are predictable, in our view. Below is what we think will most likely happen after the Bitcoin halving. 3-12) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/happens-bitcoin-halving #BTC

What happens after the #Bitcoin halving?

1-12) A mere two days away, the Bitcoin halving has sparked a self-fulfilling prophecy. Google Trends has ‘Bitcoin Halving’ at its highest ‘search scale’ ever (score 100 vs. the 2020 #Bitcoin halving search score of 60). Social media ‘analysis’ has consistently claimed that every prior halving has been bullish for the price of Bitcoin. While the price rally may not be immediate, we are focused on when, not if.

2-12) When we analyzed all the previous #Bitcoin cycles, we realized that prices do not move randomly and that Bitcoin is such a powerful invention because of the incentives structured around it. That’s why pre- and post-halving price developments are predictable, in our view. Below is what we think will most likely happen after the Bitcoin halving.

3-12) Read the full report here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/happens-bitcoin-halving

#BTC

Disclaimer: Includes third-party opinions. No financial advice. See T&Cs.
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We Sold Everything Last Night
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Is The Bitcoin Bull Market Over? What Every Trader Should Know Now A month ago, we wrote that Bitcoin ETF inflows would slow down – indeed, it has become evident to other market participants by now. If not the ETFs, who is the critical marginal buyer that lifts BTC prices above the upper triangle? A repricing of the US interest rate curve due to higher inflation should also be seen as a headwind. The market dynamic might have changed during the last week—again, in hindsight, it might have been evident. While we need more data and evidence, working with downside price (stop loss) levels could be critical to protecting capital. Since 2017, Bitcoin's cyclical nature and diminishing upside cycle returns (560x, 108x, 21x → notice the sequence) have been apparent. This cycle’s projection could have been fulfilled at 4-5x from the lows). This is why we have been advocating for a risk-mitigating strategy, with the all-time high at 68,300 serving as our ‘line in the sand.’ We stress(ed) that a failure to accelerate above this level could lead to cascading losses, underscoring the importance of this strategy. The lower triangle itself broke at 67,800, so selling positions would have made sense from a risk-management perspective. The sell-off was halted precisely at the previous low (March 19) when Bitcoin prices dropped to this 60,000/61,000 level, around the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level. This is now a critical stop loss level as the next Fib level sits at 51,000 (or -22% lower). Almost two months ago, when Bitcoin traded at 52,000, our pre-halving analysis suggested that Bitcoin could rally to 68,000 (+32%) into the halving, reaching a potential peak a few days before. This foresight has proven accurate, with Bitcoin trading right where our pre-halving analysis suggested. The 60-day post-halving return is +16% only. In trading, it’s essential to know when to bet big and when to bet small; this is a time to bet small. Crypto’s volatility always offers excellent opportunities to make outsized returns; sometimes, waiting for those opportunities is essential.
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We Sold Everything Last Night -> 👇1-11) Our growing concern is that risk assets (stocks and crypto) are teetering on the edge of a significant price correction (see yesterday’s report). The primary trigger is the unexpected and persistent inflation. With the bond market now projecting less than three cuts and 10-year Treasury Yields surpassing 4.50%, we may have arrived at a crucial tipping point for risk assets. 👇2-11) It is essential to understand that trading is a continuous game with high-conviction opportunities. The key is to keep analyzing the markets and uncovering those opportunities when the odds are in your favor. There are times when we advocate for a total risk-on approach and when the priority is safeguarding your capital, enabling you to seize opportunities at lower levels. 👇3-11) Read the full note: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/sold-everything-last-night #BTC #SHIBA🔥
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Why the Hong Kong #Bitcoin ETFs Matter – Consider This: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/hong-kong-bitcoin-etfs-matter-consider #BTC
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Is The #Bitcoin Bull Market Over? What Every Trader Should Know Now 👇1-16) While every market correction is easily explained in hindsight, we've been relatively cautious. As we emphasized in our 10x Research Telegram Group chat on Sunday, the recent sell-off presents significant risks and offers a potential buying opportunity. We've identified the most important price levels to watch (stops), providing a roadmap for potentially protecting profits. 👇2-16) If we break those levels, it is crucial to prepare for several tough weeks and months ahead. While crypto has become big enough to remain a legitimate asset class, deep and prolonged corrections can still occur. Understanding and managing these risks is critical. 👇3-16) Contrary to popular belief, we took a cautious stance on the post-halving, highlighting the lack of historical evidence to support immediate bullishness. In our Friday (April 12) report, we warned that Bitcoin miners could potentially sell $5bn of BTC inventories after the halving, which could adversely affect altcoins. This caution was validated as many popular altcoins experienced significant declines over the weekend. 👇4-16) A month ago, we wrote that Bitcoin ETF inflows would slow down – indeed, it has become evident to other market participants by now. We also believe many ETF inflows are arbitrage positions (25-30%) instead of outright longs – overstating the positive signaling effect. 👇5-16) Read the rest here: https://mail.10xresearch.co/p/bitcoin-bull-market-every-trader-know-now #BTC
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