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From the perspective of experience, "the positive impact of halving the bitcoin price is negative", this sentence has always been true.
The first two cycles were the same (a negative decline after halving), and a new round of market conditions began after halving.
Of course, almost all market trends so far have revolved around interest rate cuts (new highs in gold, new highs in US stocks, new highs in cryptocurrencies, etc.).
April is an unstable period for halving, and the market is likely to start to pick up or rebound in May.
In June, the European Central Bank took the lead in starting a monetary easing cycle, and the Federal Reserve will take over later by easing monetary policy.
Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting last week showed: "Almost all participants believed that a rate cut this year would be appropriate; the Fed tended to reduce the monthly balance sheet reduction by about half."
That said, the good news is that there will be fewer rate cuts this year, it’s just a matter of when they will occur.
Judging from further data, the market has begun to digest the reduced probability of a rate cut in June.
Bets on a rate cut in June have dissipated, judging by swap markets, pushing out a fully priced Fed rate cut until September.
The market rose too quickly, and became anxious too quickly when faced with uncertainty. The current stage is very emotional, and it may take some time to digest and sort out the situation.
The market is correcting, and altcoins are generally falling. Don’t forget the niche track that is hyped every year: fan coins!
1. Champions League final, June 1
2. European Cup group stage on June 15
From May to September 2022, SANTOS increased by as much as 1597%, and LAZIO increased by 962%. Generally, fan coin speculation will occur 1 to 2 months in advance, so now is the right time to make a layout!
There are currently a large number of fan coins on the market, but the market value of fan coins is generally small, ranging from hundreds of thousands to 30 million US dollars.
Generally speaking, the fan coins with large market capitalization are basically dominated by football clubs in major leagues.
Why is now the ambush window period?
Although the trends of each currency are not exactly the same, we take BAR, which has the largest market value, as an example:
The hype is almost based on the dates of the Champions League group stage and finals.
It usually starts about 2 months in advance and reaches its peak one month in advance
In June this year, with the dual narratives of the Champions League final and the European Cup, there has been a surge in sales.
Also: Hype has nothing to do with whether a team makes it to the Champions League!
Most of the fan coins are concentrated in the hands of the top few holders. With the continuous release of positive expectations for the European Cup, doubling the capital will be a good strategy. There may be a wave of hype before June!
I am still betting on CHZ, the leader in fan tokens. I have made a 30% profit after the previous ambush at 0.138. Those who haven’t bought in can still do so. For those who hold it, just slightly increase the average price and wait for the favorable effects to come!
The reasons why the Hong Kong ETF did not perform well after its approval are as follows:
Even if Hong Kong's Bitcoin spot ETF and Ethereum spot ETF are added together, the fund size may be at most US$500 million, far less than the US Bitcoin spot ETF:
1. The Hong Kong ETF market is very small, only US$5 billion, and mainland residents should not be able to purchase the product, at least the government will not allow it openly;
2. The three issuers that have been approved (Bosera, Huaxia, and Harvest) are also very small in scale, and there is no giant like BlackRock involved;
3. The liquidity or efficiency of the underlying ecosystem is very low;
4. Management costs will be very high, which is relatively weak compared with the management costs in the United States.
Another follow-up effect worth observing is that after the United States approved the Bitcoin spot ETF, it has been slow to release positive signals in the application for the Ethereum spot ETF, causing the market's expectations for the Ethereum spot ETF to pass this year to drop again and again.
The approval of the Ethereum spot ETF by Hong Kong may indirectly put pressure on the US SEC and increase the probability and efficiency of their approval. Kong Jianping, director of Hong Kong Cyberport, said last week that the Hong Kong Ethereum ETF will be a life-saving straw for ETH!
In the long run, the current market situation is the only way to the top of the mountain:
1. Sol, which rose about 500 times in the last round, experienced several halvings before reaching its peak. It fell 4 times from August to December 2020, was halved once in May 2021, and was halved once in September 2021. It reached its peak of $259 in November 2021.
2. Link, which was a star stock in the last round and rose by a hundred times, experienced several halvings before reaching its peak. From June to September 2019, it fell by about 2 times (halved again). After rebounding in the second half of 2019, it was halved again on March 12, 2020. After rebounding, it was halved again from August to October 2020, and fell by about 40% in February 2021. It reached a peak of 53 knives in April 2021, and was halved again on May 19, 2021. It pulled back in the second half of the market in the second half of 2021.
The road to the top of the mountain is always climbing up and down hills. Every time you go down a slope to climb a higher mountain, is there still light in your eyes?
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