Bitcoin rebounded quickly after a flash crash over the weekend due to geopolitical issues, and is currently rebounding and sprinting back above the key support level.
Good news, sentiment is improving, and the price decline finally closed the weekly line, allowing the price to effectively stabilize above 64,000, and the monthly support did not fall below.
Bad news, the key support moved down, and the support range below the short-term market moved down, which is not conducive to the stabilization of the price after the rebound.
The short-term rebound resistance of 68,500 is also a key resistance level. If it breaks through and stabilizes, the price returns to the upper track of the daily Bollinger Band, and the resistance becomes support, which is conducive to further rebound of the price. However, breaking through this position requires facing the double obstacles of the weekly EMA7 and the daily Bollinger Band midline, and the main rebound breakthrough situation.
If the breakthrough fails and continues to fall, the effective support below, 64,600 and 61,200, are considered short-term effective support. We temporarily ignore the small-level support. In the decline, the small-level support will directly fail. In addition, the current reduction in liquidity is not conducive to the reference value of small-level support.
The key support of 64,600 comes from the monthly support, which is more important for the overall price. The gold support level of 61,200, the price fell rapidly in the short term, and it can be used as a reference position for short-term support rebound, and at the same time as a support for short-term rapid decline.
At present, Bitcoin rebounded, and the altcoins followed the rise, but the rise now may not really continue to be bullish. The current Bitcoin rebound and the altcoin rebound can basically be regarded as an oversold rebound after a short-term rapid decline. For the specific market situation, we still need to refer to the market data and capital changes later.
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Israel's counterattack was also successfully suppressed by the United States. From this point of view, the market has returned to stability after the tension over the weekend.
From the perspective of the United States and Israel, Iran is bluffing and pretending to be powerful.
But from another perspective, judging from the series of actions taken by Iran and its neighboring brothers, Iran is also very likely to use the strategy of tired soldiers and siege without fighting to make you panic, but it does not need to take direct action. At present, this is indeed the most favorable situation for Iran itself. Although it can be fought, the cost is too high.
On the Russian and Ukrainian side, Ukraine is retreating step by step, while on the Russian side, after two years of war, the domestic economy has not declined but increased, and it has become a new system, a bit like the rhythm of Phoenix Nirvana, and the rhythm of putting it to death. This has greatly weakened the overall planning of the United States abroad, and now the United States has fewer and fewer cards in its hands.
In terms of international bulk commodities, the main focus today is crude oil, gold and sugar.
Crude oil prices fell slightly. The current win-win situation in the Middle East has made the situation relatively stable, and the international financial market sentiment has returned to calm.
The overall international gold price is also falling, and risk aversion has decreased.
But does all this indicate that local problems can be temporarily abandoned?
The answer is that it seems not. Although the price of white sugar futures is generally falling, the price has rebounded significantly today. As a strategic material, white sugar is still being bought at the bottom, indicating that in some areas, potential dangers are still there.
For US stocks, since the situation of international bulk is relatively stable and market sentiment has warmed up, it means that US stocks tonight will temporarily lose the threat of geopolitical factors, and because of the arrival of the earnings season, the mood should be good.
Among the current technology stocks, Nvidia. Apple rose before the market, and Coin's stock price also rose before the market.
Tonight's US manufacturing data for April is estimated to be a number game. The previous value was 20.9, and the expected value was actually 7.5. Any random data will be greater than the expected value, which can effectively reduce the negative sentiment caused by the data being lower than the previous value.
The US dollar index remained at around 105.8. In fact, the US dollar index did not reach the expected position of the Fed in this round of interest rate hikes. Referring to history, the US dollar is indeed in decline, but it is still the first currency of the blue planet, which is also a fact. It is expected that before the interest rate cut is confirmed, the US dollar index will still be stimulated to rise, so that the subsequent interest rate cut will bring better expectations of decline. But the idea is good, whether it can meet the expectations of the Fed is another matter.
At present, the Bitcoin futures index is quoted at around 66,835, and continues to maintain a positive premium of 300 points with the spot.
Bitcoin successfully continued its rebound on Monday, did not effectively fall below the monthly support tube, and perfectly stood above the key support of the weekly line.
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