2024.4.11 Macro Analysis

Good afternoon, brothers. Last night's market repeated history again. The market fell sharply before and after the release of economic data, and rebounded after the sharp drop.

CPI is higher than expected, and many people believe that there will be no interest rate cut this year. Last night, I said that pessimism reached its bottom. Today, BTC has re-entered 70,000.

There are three possibilities this year:

The first interest rate cut will start in June

The first interest rate cut will start in September

No interest rate cut this year

The second possibility is currently the largest, followed by the first. The probability of no interest rate cut is almost zero. The expected delay did not end the bull market, but extended the bull market. Last night, Biden reassured the market, saying that CPI data would cause the interest rate cut to be postponed for at least one month, but it would still be cut before the end of the year.

At the same time, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting. Almost all participants believe that there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts this year.

As long as BTC does not plummet, although the cottage will not follow the rise, it will go sideways in place, and it will rise again after being cleaned up, so just be patient and wait. #比特币减半 #CPI数据 #BTC