Macroeconomics and news:

The CPI data released tonight surprised many people, including myself.

Yesterday, I expected that the CPI data would mostly be the same as the previous value. I really didn't expect that the Fed would be so ruthless in order to meet the market's optimistic expectations of a rate cut.

The CPI was significantly higher than the previous value, which is really impressive. Now the market's expectations for a rate cut in June are basically zero. Then there will be July, September, and even after the election at the end of the year.

Really, if the Fed is shameless, it will directly wait for the PCE index to be higher than the previous value at the end of the month. In this way, the market will directly estimate that it will cut off expectations of a rate cut this year. However, if inflation really rebounds like this, it also proves that the Fed's previous actions were useless. This result is very embarrassing. I don't believe the Fed can do this.

That is, it is enough to use semi-core data such as CPI to suppress market expectations.

Moreover, according to this idea, using news data to suppress market expectations proves that their real actions may be just the opposite. Maybe a rate cut has been put on the agenda, and all they are doing now are preparations.

Because once the market anticipates the Fed's rate cut rhythm, it will take action in advance, which will cause many of the Fed's preparatory work before the rate cut to fail. Therefore, use market sentiment to guide the results, and then directly announce the rate cut at a certain time. At present, the most likely time is June. Why is it so anxious to let the market give up the expectation of a rate cut in June? Is it possible that the market's expectations have already met the Fed's plan, so it can only guide the market sentiment to shift?

Before the actual rate cut, before June, I believe that in order to control market expectations, the Fed estimates that many data will become outrageous, and everyone will slowly accept it.

If the CPI data is revised again in the future, I estimate that the market will lose trust in US data, and the real action of the US rate cut still needs to be considered in combination with more aspects. At least for the time being, it has temporarily lost the opportunity to cut interest rates from the perspective of inflation, so let's look at other data later.

For the current market, in the short term, it has become accustomed to the rhythm of delayed rate cuts. As long as it is not expected that there will be no rate cuts this year, or even the possibility of rate hikes, I think the risk market can withstand many negative results.

Although the data has been released, the Federal Reserve's March monetary minutes will be released in the early morning. Let's see if there is a chance to gain more useful confidence. I estimate that it is basically to consolidate the hawkish remarks after the CPI is super high.

In the crypto market, Howard Lutnick, co-founder of Cantor Fitzgerald, publicly stated that stablecoins help consolidate the low hegemony of the US dollar. In fact, I have published an article about the battle for stablecoins since last year. I think that after the ETF is passed, many US institutions have a lot of chips. After obtaining pricing power, they must control the stablecoin market. Recently, the US legislature has been emphasizing the supervision of the crypto market, including stablecoins. And Howard Lutnick's point of view is actually correct in a sense, because a large number of stablecoins are settled and anchored in US dollars, which does enhance the use scenarios and usage of the US dollar. This will lead to an increase in the low position of the US dollar. But by the same token, what the United States wants is control. If the mainstream stablecoins are in the hands of the United States, then it will inevitably support it reasonably.

On the contrary, if the United States finds that it lacks control, it will inevitably find ways to restrict or even curb development. At present, the US crypto policy will be revised after Trump takes office. Trump supports the crypto market, and the two major parties in the US are also working hard to win the support of crypto investors for the election. Therefore, it is indeed inappropriate to restrict the crypto market before the election. However, what I am more worried about is that after Trump takes office, will he suddenly change his optimistic support and abandon the donkey after it has done its job?

#大盘走势