OK, let's start today's daily update.
Let's first pay attention to the situation in the international financial market:
Today's theme is undoubtedly CPI data. The data is higher than the previous value and the expected value, exceeding our expectations yesterday. The original plan was to be at most the same as the previous value. Unexpectedly, the data was really bold, directly exceeding the previous value by a large margin, and today the expectation was adjusted to 3.4%. Although the CPI data cannot truly reflect the actual inflation situation in the United States, the market expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut have been lowered again under the impetus of this data.
Off topic, I don't believe that the Fed dares to push the PCE index to exceed the previous value, otherwise it will prove that the Fed's inflation work has failed and has also been slapped in the face.
It is precisely because the CPI data involves inflation and cannot fully reflect the actual inflation situation that the Fed dares to play this way.
The U.S. stock market is in the process of reacting and clearing up, and it fell directly at the opening, but it is expected that it will not fall too much and will rebound. After all, the Fed has been playing with expectations from last year to now, resulting in a decrease in the credibility of the data, and the risk market has become accustomed to it. In addition to emotional digestion, it seems that it cannot bring too terrible a decline.
Except for Nvidia, technology stocks are basically in a state of general decline. Google, Apple, and Tesla are currently falling.
Micro Strategy fell slightly, but Coin's stock price rebounded and rose. It seems that the current decline in the stock market seems to have stimulated and promoted the emotions of crypto traders.
Asian stock markets are relatively bleak today. A-shares and Nikkei closed with a decline, and the Hang Seng Index rose against the trend because of its own positive factors.
Affected by CPI, the US dollar index once broke through 105 and is temporarily stabilized. To be honest, this should be the result the United States wants to see.
The price of 10-year US Treasury bonds was hit again, and the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds broke through 4.5%, and the interest rate returned to the highest interest point last year.
The US dollar continued to strengthen against RMB and yen, and the yen weakened slightly against RMB. The strong US dollar will greatly suppress the yen.
The ETF market is currently bleak, and institutional ETFs such as BlackRock, Grayscale, and Fidelity have fallen slightly.
International gold has weakened slightly, and the strong US dollar will indirectly affect the weakening of the gold market. The current price is $2,343.
International crude oil continues to remain around 90, currently quoted at 89.5 dollars, crude oil prices continue to maintain a strong low. The increase in energy costs in part of the US CPI data is also caused by the increase in global energy prices, but the current US crude oil inventory is still sufficient.
The CME Bitcoin futures index is $68,385, continuing to maintain a positive premium with the spot, but the current positive premium is very small, which basically proves that the current bullish sentiment in the futures market is weakening. But it is normal. The CPI data plus the Fed's monetary minutes in the early morning will cause a hedge in bulk.
Bitcoin has now fallen to the second support rebound yesterday, and has not yet touched the third support and tested it. At present, the US stock market has not hit the crypto market again. Looking at the Coin stock price, there is a trend of rebound. The Fed's monetary minutes in March in the early morning are not expected to have a worse result. After all, the current market expects the Fed's interest rate cut to be delayed. You can't make an expectation that there will be no interest rate cut this year, right? In addition to this option, the market should not be too pessimistic again.
Later is the analysis of Bitcoin's disk.
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