Yesterday's Bitcoin spot ETF trading volume data is as follows: BlackRock IBIT - $1.39 billion; Grayscale GBTC - $679 million; Fidelity FBTC - $489 million; ProShares BITO - $324 million; ARKB - $172 million; BITB - $78.89 million. Among them, BlackRock IBIT inflows $129 million, Grayscale GBTC outflows $155 million.

2024 can be said to be the first year that Bitcoin enters the mainstream world. Starting this year, Bitcoin has really bid farewell to the era of small investors. It will be dominated by institutions in the future. According to such expectations, the future price of Bitcoin is really unimaginable. Yesterday, Shenyu said at the Hong Kong conference that in 2030, Bitcoin will be at least 1.5 million US dollars per coin. This is still a conservative estimate. When global institutions and capital realize that Bitcoin is the gold of the traditional world, they will rush to buy it, and eventually gold and Bitcoin will reach a balance point.

Bitcoin is fluctuating at a high level, which is actually quite dangerous. It reached around 72,500 on April 8. This was the third attempt to break through. I thought it would set a new high, but it started to fall yesterday. Obviously, the rise has become weak. The market has an expectation that Bitcoin will fall after halving, so this is also the trend shown on the market at present.

However, this year is different from previous years. With the participation of major players from Wall Street, there will be declines, but a sharp drop is unlikely. Every time there is a decline, there will be strong support. There is an expectation of adjustment after the halving, but I don’t think the magnitude will be large.

The overall market rebounded yesterday, but fell back quickly today, indicating that the market's takeover funds are still relatively limited. Therefore, as the market is still fluctuating at a high level, my personal suggestion is that you can buy at the bottom and adopt a strategy of buying small when the market drops slightly and buying more when the market drops sharply. Overall, don't use too much leverage, and spot operations are best!

I personally believe that the biggest opportunity will occur after the Bitcoin halving. After the market has adjusted and brewed for a period of time, it will be possible for a relatively large market to explode. The current second-tier sectors can be deployed on dips one after another, and after the Bitcoin halving adjustment is completed, I personally expect that this sector will continue to explode!

Before the halving, it can only be defined as some small opportunities, so don’t have too high expectations when participating. As long as the expectations are not too high, the corresponding operations will not be too aggressive!

Through the more than 20 days of fluctuations, it is obvious that the bulls are the dominant force and the air force is getting weaker and weaker.

The conclusion is that the bulls are strong, doesn’t that mean the probability of a subsequent rise is high?

In fact, the current trend is a trap set by the main force for retail investors. It goes up and then pulls back, making retail investors think that there will be a big drop. It goes up and then pulls back a little, giving retail investors the feeling that the market cannot go up. But in fact, prices are constantly rising, and the pressure from above is slowly diluted by the main force.

When the market suddenly rises sharply one day, retail investors suddenly realize that they were still waiting for a big drop and have not yet gotten on board.

But why are there so many people who are bearish? I think it’s because they are guessing the market, because the coins they hold have not risen or improved, and because they see that the market has not been rising all the time, but has been going back and forth, so they are anxious and think that the market will fall.

Investing is a very professional and cautious matter. It is not a joke, nor is it gambling. This is the money that everyone has worked hard to earn. Everyone invests because they want their family to live a better life and to improve their quality of life.

However, many people who enter this market are investing blindly. They don't know what the coins they are buying are, nor do they know whether the market will rise or fall next. They just buy without thinking, buy whatever others say they will buy after a while, or buy whatever they find in some articles or news that others recommend. This is completely irresponsible to themselves and their families.

What level of trading are you doing? Short-term? Medium-term? Long-term? Without knowing these, you start to buy blindly. One hour has one hour's trend, four hours has four hours' trend, and the daily line has its own trend. Different levels have different strategies, different buying and selling times, and different gains.

I see that people who have entered the cryptocurrency circle from last year to this year are saying that they can make money by buying anything in a bull market. So I would like to ask: "If everyone is making money, who is losing money?" According to the 80/20 rule in the financial market, only a few people make money, while most people lose money. So if you don’t understand and don’t learn, why should you be one of the few?

From last year to this year, people who hold such views, I believe, have experienced what I am saying. Although the market has been rising from last year to this year, their own accounts have been shrinking.

Here’s a sentence for everyone: “The reason why rich people are rich is not because they got rich overnight or made a sudden fortune, but because they have mastered the ability and thinking to make money.” The reason why Buffett was able to trade for 70-80 years and became the richest man in the world is because he mastered the correct trading method.

It is worth noting that today the United States will release last month's CPI data, and the market expectation is 3.2%. Since the current forecast for a rate hike in June is almost fifty-fifty, the release of this CPI data will greatly affect the market's expectations for the Fed's future rate hikes, and thus affect the US dollar index and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds.

If the CPI data exceeds expectations, the market may continue to pull back due to falling expectations of interest rate hikes. If it is lower than expected, the market may rebound and Bitcoin is expected to break through the historical high of US$73,700.

It is also worth noting that in the past 30 days, the major stablecoins USDT and USDC have issued a total of US$10 billion, indicating that new funds are flowing into the crypto market.

The growth in stablecoin supply may be more important to the crypto market bull run than ETF inflows.

This Bitcoin halving is different from previous ones. The situation faced by this halving is that Bitcoin has broken through its historical high for the first time before the halving.

And this happened against the backdrop of the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented rate hikes and balance sheet reduction measures. In addition, the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF also had a significant impact on the market.

Thanks to the support of ETFs, the Bitcoin market has demonstrated strong consensus and continued capital inflows, and even in the correction after a sharp rise in prices, the decline has been relatively limited.

However, many altcoins have fallen into a technical bear market with weak capital sentiment, including Ethereum, which has not performed well.

In addition, new projects are constantly being launched in the market, sucking away a large amount of market funds, resulting in more severe price corrections of these currencies once market sentiment declines.

In general, the market's correction this time was mainly affected by the net outflow of ETF funds and the weakening of expectations for interest rate cuts. Judging from the current trend, the magnitude of the correction will not be large.

From a cyclical perspective, the overall trend of the market is still bullish, so we don’t need to worry too much about short-term market corrections. Instead, corrections are a good opportunity for us to increase our positions in batches.

But you should also pay attention to controlling your positions. Don't hold a full position, and keep 10-20% to deal with extreme market conditions. Today, you can pay attention to the CPI data released by the United States, which will affect the short-term price trend of Bitcoin.

For us ordinary retail investors, as long as we don’t touch the contracts, hold the spot patiently, manage our positions well, and don’t get off easily, we can reap the dividends of this round of industry growth.

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