#BTC #ETH#BTC halving
Bitcoin is expected to be halved on April 20, which will be the most important event in the future;
Although this halving event is also a positive, we should lower our expectations compared to the previous two halvings, because this halving will not have much impact on the supply of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has entered the trading era, and the mining era has long been declared over;
The total issuance of Bitcoin is close to 21 million, and 19.67 million have been mined, with a mining rate of 93.7%;
Next, we use data to review the impact of previous halving events on the market:
The first halving (2012/11/28): too ancient, so I won’t mention it;
The second halving (2016/07/09):
May 2016: 70% increase in one month;
June 2016: 30% correction in one month;
July 09, 2016: The halving event occurred. There was no major fluctuation in the market in the following week, and then a month of decline began, with a drop of 30%;
After August 2016: The halving benefit was realized, and Bitcoin began to rise at a historical level, and finally went out of the bull market for one year and four months, and finally peaked in December 2017;
The third halving (2020/05/11):
February-March 2020: A 70% drop in one month, the infamous 312 incident in the history of the currency circle occurred;
May 2020: Bitcoin rose 2.6 times in 2 months, recovering all losses;
May 11, 2020: The halving event occurred, and Bitcoin maintained a 10% range of sideways consolidation in the following two months of May and June;
July 2020-October 2022: The halving benefits were realized, and Bitcoin began to strengthen, with a 40% increase;
After October 2020: The halving benefits were fully realized, and Bitcoin began to go out of the 8-month bull market, with a 6-fold increase, and finally peaked in May 2021;
The fourth halving (2024/04/20):
February 2024: 60% increase within one month;
March 2024: 18% correction within one month;
April 2024: ongoing;
April 20, 2024: halving event occurs.....
To summarize:
The second halving was a 70% increase first, then a 30% decrease, and then another 30% decrease after the halving, and then sideways for 2 months, starting a historical level pull;
The third halving was a 70% decrease first, then a 2.6-fold increase, and then after the halving, there was no significant fluctuation but sideways for 2 months, starting a historical level pull;
The fourth halving will see a 60% increase first, followed by a 18% decrease. Please stay tuned after the halving.