#BTC #ETH#BTCHalving
Bitcoin is expected to be halved on April 20, which will be the most important event in the future;
Although this halving event is also a positive, we should lower our expectations compared to the previous two halvings, because this halving will not have much impact on the supply of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has entered the trading era, and the mining era has long been declared over.
The total supply of Bitcoin is close to 21 million, and 19.67 million have been mined, with a mining rate of 93.7%;
Next, we use data to review the impact of previous halving events on the market:
The first halving (2012/11/28): It’s too ancient, so I won’t mention it;
The second halving (2016/07/09):
May 2016: 70% increase in one month;
June 2016: 30% correction within one month;
July 9, 2016: The halving event occurred. There was no major market fluctuation in the following week, and then a month-long decline began, with a drop of 30%;
After August 2016: The positive effects of the halving were realized, and Bitcoin began to rise at a historical level, and finally came out of the bull market for one year and four months, and finally peaked in December 2017;
The third halving (2020/05/11):
February-March 2020: The price of cryptocurrencies fell by 70% in one month, and the infamous 312 incident occurred.
May 2020: Bitcoin increased 2.6 times in 2 months, recovering all losses;
May 11, 2020: The halving event occurred, and in the following two months of May and June, Bitcoin maintained a sideways consolidation within a 10% range;
July 2020 - October 2022: The halving benefit is realized, and Bitcoin starts to strengthen, with an increase of 40%;
After October 2020: The positive effects of the halving were fully realized, and Bitcoin began an 8-month bull market, with a 6-fold increase, and finally peaked in May 2021;
The fourth halving (2024/04/20):
February 2024: 60% increase in one month;
March 2024: 18% correction within one month;
April 2024: In progress;
April 20, 2024: Halving event occurs...
in conclusion:
The second halving was a 70% increase, then a 30% drop, and then another 30% drop after the halving, and then it went sideways for 2 months, and then began to pull up at a historical level;
The third halving saw a 70% drop first, then a 2.6-fold increase. After the halving, there was no significant fluctuation but it went sideways for 2 months before the historical level rally began.
The fourth halving will see a 60% increase first, followed by an 18% drop. Please stay tuned after the halving.
So if we analyze the trend of Bitcoin based on the halving event alone, first of all, the long-term cycle after the halving will definitely be good for Bitcoin. Generally, it takes 2 months after the halving for the benefits to be realized. Secondly, according to historical conditions, there is no obvious ups and downs in the 3-4 months before and after the halving. Finally, the halving trend in 2020 needs to consider the special situation of the epidemic, and the halving trend in 2024 needs to consider the special situation of ETFs.
