Employment data warmed up, negative news came to light, and the U.S. stock and crypto markets rebounded simultaneously. Can Bitcoin break through and hold the key resistance level?
Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat’s crypto world.
As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at around 67,500. Bitcoin fell during the early morning speeches of Federal Reserve officials. Asian markets continued to fall but did not reach the core support. After the release of tonight's major non-farm data, Bitcoin began to rebound along with U.S. stocks.
The warming of US employment data is bearish for the risk market, but the market sentiment rebounded after the negative news landed. Bitcoin paused at the key resistance level of the daily Bollinger Band midline during the breakthrough rebound stage. Once it breaks through and stabilizes above, it will be more beneficial for the encouragement of the market outlook and the weekend altcoins.
Bitcoin disk analysis:
Today’s theme is still to recharge your faith. The decline of Bitcoin after this surge in the early morning was used by many people to create anxiety, thinking that if the breakthrough failed, it would continue to fall, so many people began to panic. Today’s market analysis is still to help everyone understand the market rationally.
Just like what Mr. Ni said in the past two days, under the market conditions, it is not necessary to be bullish and chase the rise when the price goes up, and it is not necessary to be bearish and chase the fall when the price goes down. Pay attention to the situation of resistance and support levels. Breaking through and not breaking through are two concepts, and whether or not the price can break through when the price goes down are also two concepts.
Let’s first look at the resistance level of the rebound:
The first resistance: 67,750, the daily Bollinger band middle line resistance, break through and stabilize at this position, the price returns to the safe range of the daily Bollinger band upper track. You can continue to be bullish.
The second resistance is 68,500, a 4-hour short-term resistance level, and the pressure to break through is not great.
The third resistance is 72,800. The daily Bollinger Band is on the upper line. If this resistance level is broken, we can see the historical high.
The key resistance level is still around 74,000 brought by the upper line of the weekly Bollinger Band.
Regarding the resistance level, what everyone is more concerned about at the moment should be the support level. Let's take a look at the changes in the support below, whether there is a possibility that the price will continue to fall, and which positions are more important after the fall.
The first support is 65,000, which is a short-term support with strong support strength. Yes, the first support is still 65,000. If it does not fall below effectively, the support at this position can remain unchanged for a month. This is because it is supported by the monthly Bollinger Bands and supplemented by the weekly EMA7.
The second support, 62,500, is a short-term support with relatively weak support strength. This support is provided by the lower line of the daily Bollinger Band and the middle line of the 3-day Bollinger Band. We can compare the support data of this position in the previous few days. The support has obviously become stronger, but compared with the first support, it is still a relatively weak support. We can regard it as a short-term buffer zone.
The third support, 61,300, is a short-term support with strong support strength. This position is also a common support point in the near future, but the support is weakening now. At present, this support is only supported by the golden section of the Fibonacci retracement level. However, under the premise that the overall market is not short, the golden section support of the Fibonacci retracement level often forms a good support rebound signal.
The RSI index has now fallen back to around 42. The data is relatively neutral and has little impact at present.
At present, the price of Bitcoin has not effectively fallen to the first support, and we have not seen whether the support is strong. So, as we said in the opening, we cannot blindly see that the price will fall deeper just because it has fallen in the short term. Every time the support is broken, the market situation will change, and the selling pressure will weaken or strengthen in different ways. Therefore, we really cannot blindly chase the decline of Bitcoin from early morning to now.
The results brought to us by the technical aspect are neither optimistic nor pessimistic, and the technical aspect only represents a reaction to the data situation. Later, we will pay attention to the data of market dynamics and capital changes and let the data speak for itself.
Market dynamics and funding changes:
(The data is real-time data. If there are major changes in the short-term market, the data will be significantly biased.)
The current market value is 2.598 trillion, which is 73 billion less than yesterday.
The market value of Bitcoin is 130.89 billion, which is 19.9 billion less than yesterday.
Ethereum's market value is 391.08 billion, a decrease of 13.92 billion compared to yesterday.
The total market value decreased by 73 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum decreased by 33.82 billion, and the rest was the market value drop of 39.18 billion for copycats.
Bitcoin accounts for 50.4% of the market, an increase of 60 basis points compared with yesterday; Ethereum accounts for 15%, a decrease of 20 basis points compared with yesterday; altcoin accounts for 34.6%, a decrease of 40 basis points compared with yesterday.
In terms of trading volume:
The total transaction volume is 124.2 billion, an increase of 17.3 billion compared to yesterday.
Bitcoin 42.8 billion, an increase of 10.2 billion compared to yesterday's trading volume.
Ethereum 18.4 billion, an increase of 4.5 billion compared to yesterday's transaction volume.
The total transaction volume of the copycat platform is 63 billion, an increase of 2.8 billion compared to yesterday.
Funding:
The total on-site funds were 153.9 billion yuan, an increase of 1.4 billion yuan compared with yesterday, and the funds accounted for 5.94%, an increase of 17 basis points compared with yesterday.
USDT: Market value of 106.44 billion, an increase of 20 million USD compared to yesterday; trading volume of 68.688 billion, an increase of 14.4%.
USDC: Market value of 32.9 billion, a decrease of 100 million US dollars compared with yesterday; trading volume of 11.9 billion, an increase of 7%
From today's data, we can see that as the market value declines, the decline of altcoins is somewhat obvious. Many tokens have lost their previous gains. In terms of market share, we can see that Bitcoin's share has increased significantly, while Ethereum and altcoins have decreased significantly, especially in the altcoin market.
However, the trading volume is still incremental. In the current decline, the trading volume has increased, indicating that the market is not simply selling, but also accompanied by the power of bottom-fishing buying. However, the decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum is in a good ratio to the trading volume, but the altcoin market has a larger decline, but the increase in trading volume is not large. The altcoin is indeed in a pessimistic mood.
In terms of funds, the on-site retained funds increased by 1.4 billion in one day, 20 million of Asian funds flowed in from the off-site funds, 100 million of American funds flowed out, and the net outflow was about 80 million. That is to say, 1.48 billion of funds left the transaction in one day, of which 80 million flowed out of the market and 1.4 billion remained in the market.
Although funds are in a state of net outflow, a large amount of funds remain in the market, which also proves that traders still have certain confidence in the future market.
In terms of data, the overall situation is not optimistic, but it is not pessimistic either. In the early morning, the hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve officials and the decline of the US stock market led to a decrease in the overall market value, but it can be seen that there is still buying power, and the market is not simply pessimistic. At the same time, although there is a net outflow of funds, the outflow is small and it is very likely to flow back tomorrow. A large amount of funds remain in the market, which may just be waiting for a suitable opportunity. This part of the funds will buy back into the market and bring about an increase.
Therefore, the market is currently waiting for an opportunity. As we said earlier this week, as long as the big non-farm data on Friday does not change the outcome of this year's interest rate cut, the market will inevitably begin to relax its vigilance and start trading after the negative data is released. Therefore, the market has already waited for the results of the data, and the rest is waiting for the risk market and even the market expectations of the US stock market to be readjusted.
Macroeconomics and news:
Today's macroeconomic theme is still the expectation of interest rate cuts and non-farm data.
Today's non-farm payrolls data was released, with a value of 30.3, significantly higher than the previous value and expectations. The data proves that the US job market is strong, the unemployment rate is low, and corporate profits are good. US stocks opened directly higher. Although US stock sentiment has been buffered, this data may not be conducive to the Fed's expectations of a quick rate cut. The possibility of a rate cut in July has increased, and expectations of a rate cut in June have decreased.
This is the superficial result brought to us by the data, but what I want to say is that we can basically understand from March that when the Fed actually cuts interest rates in the future, it will be difficult for us to predict the exact pace of the Fed's interest rate cuts through data and various actions of the United States.
The central banks of various countries have a keener sense of economics than we do. This time, the Fed successfully tricked Japan into raising interest rates and Switzerland into lowering interest rates. Even they were misled by the Fed’s tricks, not to mention us retail investors. So again, the Fed’s interest rate cut expectations may be manipulated. However, fundamentally, the United States has serious internal problems, and interest rate cuts are still the main theme of this year’s economy.
Unless the Federal Reserve finds sufficient reasons not to cut interest rates this year, it seems unlikely at the moment.
Therefore, we will still face more smoke screen data and speeches from the Federal Reserve in the future.
As for the crypto market and US stocks, since the main theme of this year remains unchanged, there is no so-called big negative news for the time being. Short-term data and expected negative news can only limit the activeness of market sentiment, but cannot directly affect the change of the general trend. So when the negative data came out, we clearly saw that the risk market breathed a sigh of relief and began to rebound.
For the crypto market, the current weakening of Ethereum has caused the ratio of Bitcoin to Ethereum to expand to 20, which is the highest value since April 21. And Bloomberg said that the market's risk appetite is weakening. If it continues to develop, it may lead to a weakening of Bitcoin's price rebound and a successful peak.
However, I personally believe that the current situation is caused on the one hand by Ethereum’s natural weakness after Cancun, and the market sector has always been focused on the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, which has led to a large amount of funds flowing into Bitcoin and the Bitcoin ecosystem. At the same time, there is also the over-the-counter ETF market, which is actually a disguised way of snatching on-site funds in the data encryption market. And under the premise of high interest rates, it does lead to a shortage of on-site funds, and funds can only rotate.
However, I still believe that as long as Bitcoin stabilizes and remains volatile, there will still be many narratives and hype points in the altcoin market. Moreover, the recent enthusiasm for Bitcoin halving has not fermented, and it may also need an opportunity to trigger it.
Market summary:
The current rebound of Bitcoin is basically in line with our expectations yesterday and earlier today. After the data was released, the negative sentiment was put to rest, which helped the market rebound. The US stock market opened higher. It was originally expected that the crypto market would rebound in the late trading or after the US stock market in the early morning, but it did not expect to rebound directly. Please pay attention to the resistance level updated today.
As for contracts, the same thing applies. Don't be blindly bearish if the price falls. Make a decision based on the support situation. The same applies to rising prices. Pay attention to the resistance levels I mentioned. Don't go long in the area very close to the resistance levels. If the short-term resistance level fails to break through, you will be trapped and you will not be able to hold on.
As for the spot market, the current Bitcoin price has been blocked at the middle line of the daily Bollinger Band. This resistance level is currently critical. Once it stabilizes above it, it will return to the upper track of the daily Bollinger Band. The market sentiment and technical trends in the future will be better.
Moreover, many friends are concerned about the altcoin market, which is frightened today. Once Bitcoin stabilizes above the key resistance, it will have a better chance to rebound over the weekend. I have to say that BNX is really strong. It does not follow Bitcoin's decline, but rebounds to make up for the rise.
Although Ethereum is in a weak position, this is due to environmental factors and funding, and more patience is needed.
Pay attention to SOL and see if Bitcoin will rebound strongly after stabilizing.
Finally, thank you all for your continued attention to Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.