Macroeconomics and news:
Today's macroeconomic theme is still the rate cut expectations and non-agricultural data.
Today's non-agricultural data was released, with a value of 30.3, which was significantly higher than the previous value and expectations. The data proved that the US job market is strong, the unemployment rate is low, and the corporate profitability is good. The US stock market opened directly up. Although the sentiment of the US stock market has been buffered, this data may not be conducive to the Fed's expectation of a quick rate cut. The possibility of a rate cut in July has increased, and the expectation of a rate cut in June has decreased.
This is the superficial result brought to us by the data, but what I want to say is that we can basically understand from March that in the future, it is difficult for us to predict the exact rhythm of the Fed's rate cut through data and various actions of the United States.
The economic sense of central banks in various countries is more sensitive than ours, and this time the Fed successfully fooled Japan to raise interest rates and Switzerland to cut interest rates. Even they were misled by the Fed's tricks, not to mention us retail investors, so the same sentence, the Fed's rate cut expectations may be manipulated. But fundamentally, the internal problems of the United States are serious, and rate cuts are still the main theme of this year's economy.
Unless the Fed finds enough reasons not to cut interest rates this year, it is unlikely at present.
Therefore, we will still face more smoke bomb data and speeches from the Federal Reserve in the future.
As for the crypto market and US stocks, since the main theme of this year remains unchanged, there will be no so-called big negative news for the time being. Short-term data negative news and expected negative news can only limit the active market sentiment, but cannot directly affect the change of the general trend. So when the negative data landed, we clearly saw that the risk market relaxed and began to rebound.
For the crypto market, the current weakening of Ethereum has caused the ratio of Bitcoin to Ethereum to expand to 20, which is the largest value since April 21. And Bloomberg said that the market's risk appetite is weakening. If it continues to develop, it may lead to a weakening of Bitcoin's price rebound and a successful peak.
However, I personally believe that the current situation is caused by the natural weakness of Ethereum after Cancun, and the market sector has always focused on the development of the Bitcoin ecosystem, which has led to a large influx of funds into Bitcoin and the Bitcoin ecosystem. At the same time, there is also the over-the-counter ETF market, which is actually robbing the on-site funds of the data encryption market in disguise, and under the premise of high interest rates, it does lead to insufficient on-site funds, and funds can only rotate.
But I still believe that as long as Bitcoin stabilizes and maintains volatility, there will still be many narratives and hype points in the altcoin market. In addition, the recent enthusiasm for Bitcoin halving has not fermented, and it may also need an opportunity to trigger it.
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(The data is real-time data. If there are major changes in the market in the short term, the data will be greatly biased)
The current market value is 2.598 trillion, which is 73 billion less than yesterday.
The market value of Bitcoin is 130.89 billion, which is 19.9 billion less than yesterday.
The market value of Ethereum is 391.08 billion, which is 13.92 billion less than yesterday.
The total market value has decreased by 73 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum have decreased by 33.82 billion, and the rest is the market value decline of 39.18 billion of the altcoins.
Bitcoin accounts for 50.4% of the market, which is 60 basis points higher than yesterday. Ethereum accounts for 15%, which is 20 basis points lower than yesterday. The altcoin accounts for 34.6%, which is 40 basis points lower than yesterday.
In terms of trading volume:
Total trading volume is 124.2 billion, an increase of 17.3 billion compared to yesterday,
Bitcoin is 42.8 billion, an increase of 10.2 billion compared to yesterday,
Ethereum is 18.4 billion, an increase of 4.5 billion compared to yesterday,
Total trading volume of altcoins is 63 billion, an increase of 2.8 billion compared to yesterday,
Funds:
Total funds in the market are 153.9 billion, an increase of 1.4 billion compared to yesterday, and the proportion of funds is 5.94%, an increase of 17 basis points compared to yesterday.
USDT: market value is 106.44 billion, an increase of 20 million US dollars compared to yesterday, trading volume is 68.688 billion, and the trading volume has increased by 14.4%,
USDC: market value is 32.9 billion, a decrease of 100 million US dollars compared to yesterday, trading volume is 11.9 billion, and the trading volume has increased by 7%
Through today's data, we can see that as the market value declines, the decline of altcoins is somewhat obvious. Many tokens have lost their previous gains. In terms of market share, we can see that the share of Bitcoin has increased significantly, while the share of Ethereum and altcoins has decreased significantly, especially in the altcoin market.
However, the trading volume is still incremental. In the current decline, the trading volume has increased, indicating that the market is not simply selling, but also accompanied by the power of bottom-fishing buying. However, the decline of Bitcoin and Ethereum is in a good ratio to the trading volume, but in the altcoin market, the decline is large, but the increase in trading volume is not large. The altcoin is indeed in a pessimistic mood.
In terms of funds, the retained funds in the market increased by 1.4 billion in one day, the off-site funds in Asia flowed in 20 million, and the US funds flowed out 100 million, with a net outflow of about 80 million, that is, 14.800 million of funds left the transaction, of which 80 million flowed out of the market and 1.4 billion remained in the market.
Although the funds were in a state of net outflow, the large amount of funds retained in the market also proved that traders still had certain confidence in the future market.
In terms of data, the overall situation was not optimistic, but of course not pessimistic. In the early morning, the hawkish remarks of the Federal Reserve officials and the decline of the US stock market led to a decrease in the overall market value, but it can be seen that there is still buying power, and the market is not simply pessimistic. At the same time, although the funds were net outflows, the outflow was small, and it is very likely that they will flow back tomorrow. The large amount of funds retained in the market may just be waiting for a suitable opportunity, and this part of the funds will be re-purchased from the market to bring about an increase.
Therefore, the market is currently waiting for an opportunity. As we said earlier this week, as long as the big non-agricultural data on Friday will not change the outcome of this year's interest rate cut, the market will inevitably begin to relax its vigilance and start trading after the negative data appears. Therefore, the market has waited for the results of the data, and the rest is waiting for the risk market and even the market expectations of the US stock market to be adjusted again.
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