March 29 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

The largest option settlement date in history of 15 billion US dollars? Will there be a big wave?

I. Core Views:

1- Yesterday, BTC's ETF was in a state of small net outflow -104 million, the spot market was stable, the overall inflow this week was greater than the outflow, the incremental funds were positive, and the neutral to bullish view remained unchanged

2- Today is the delivery date of 15 billion US dollars. Subjective judgment will not have a big fluctuation. The implied volatility has been mentioned before. It will be a downward judgment. It is expected to continue to rise next week

3-The copycat target has recently caught #Doge. If you are a star friend, I have repeatedly reminded you several times. If you miss it, you can only beat yourself

II. BTC \ ETH \SOL

① Spot

Yesterday's overall spot volatility was significantly smaller than the day before yesterday. The new arrival above $70,000 boosted market confidence, and the three core targets rose by more than 1% in the past 24 hours.

② Implied volatility of options

The implied volatility of BTC and ETH has fallen slightly at the near end, and there is no obvious change at the far end; from the perspective of the volatility cone, it is still in the high volatility area, but based on the halving and ETH ETF, I personally do not recommend the strategy of shorting implied volatility, especially on the call option side, because the profit and loss ratio is not good.

Sol's implied volatility has fallen significantly recently. If there are players who short Sol's volatility, you may need to consider whether to adjust the rhythm. I personally bet 30% less.

③ Block transactions

Most of the transaction records of BTC and ETH show a unified direction of Long Call/Call Spread and Short Put/Put Spread strategies, such as BTC 26 APR 24 70000/85000 Call Spread (850 BTC per leg) and Sell ETH 26 APR 24 2800 Put (11237 ETH from Deribit)

Some large traders have even begun to lay out BTC call options worth $200,000 next year

buy BTC-28MAR25-200000-C

Sol has not had any particularly large volumes recently, so there is no obvious reference significance

buy SOL_USDC-26APR24-195-C

III. Copycat options

Overall, the core targets I have been focusing on recently are these, and they have all achieved more or less success:#TON#Doge #Kaspa

If you want to learn in depth, I recommend "Sober Chat Options Planet or Private Tutoring Class"

In the future, prices will only increase, not decrease, and there will be no promotions

IV. Other capital markets

US stocks:

Fed Waller made a hawkish speech after the market, saying that the number of interest rate cuts this year may decrease. At the same time, he also said that he hopes to see at least a few months of improvement in inflation data before cutting interest rates. Tonight's core PCE data will be the first important inflation data after this speech. Let's see whether its month-on-month growth can slow down to 0 as expected by the market.Below 3%, showing a good change.

A shares:

Recently, the Big A market has been fluctuating every day, and it is very easy to do more and make more mistakes. If you always have a strong foundation in strategic and tactical play, you will be much more relaxed. In fact, our daily analysis of volatility is not to allow everyone to operate every day. It is more about fine-tuning tactics based on the small actions I wrote before, or it is also a good choice to stay flat. (Refer to "Will A-shares be bullish in 2024?")

The reduction of some long-term call options that I mentioned before is also because I know that this round of upward movement has arrived and needs to be corrected. At the same time, I am waiting for the second round and I still don’t know what it is?

Now is the boring time, it is easy to do many things and make many mistakes, so just wait patiently.