June 18 Crypto Option Volatility Research Report

ZK's online blood-sucking effect is serious, BTC MA 120-day support is still valid, what should we do next?

Registration link of Deribit, the first crypto option exchange (10% rebate): https://tibired.com/?reg=18775.7600

I. Core Views

1- Yesterday, I had an in-depth discussion with an old friend in the private class who is very good at investment. Now we are making preparations in two aspects. If BTC continues to fall below the 120-day line, we will reduce our positions. If not, we will still be in spot, options + delta. The essence of trading is to decide the next step based on the trend and watch while walking. But we must act according to the plan.

2- From the perspective of the hidden wave of Yazhan, BTC and ETH have not panicked. Recently, the overall ETF has a net outflow of about 200 million US dollars per day.

3- The copycats are in disarray, but as I said, high-quality copycats are still relatively resistant to declines, such as sol and ton. Some altcoins are currently near the batting area, and I will choose the right time to increase my position.

2. Institutional bulk transactions

The two largest transactions of BTC yesterday each made more than 200 positions of buy call operations

buy BTC-21JUN24-67000-C

buy BTC-18JUN24-68000-C

ETH bulk is mainly bearish, and it is seen as horizontal. It has made collar and sell-straddle

sell ETH-28JUN24-3400-P + buy ETH-28JUN24-3700-P

sell ETH-28JUN24-3600-C + sell ETH-28JUN24-3600-P

Sol has no obvious guiding significance, and will release planets if there is a special meaning

3. Macro market

The US stock account has reached a new high, mainly contributed by TSLA and TLT. Continue to hold the medium and long-term option trading strategy unchanged, and now it is lying flat.

The A-share market has not cut interest rates, indicating that the pressure on the exchange rate is still there. The expectation of subsequent monetary policy is locked in the reduction of the reserve requirement ratio or other forms of capital injection. There is nothing much to say about the market today. The state of lack of confidence remains, and the state of waiting for new narrative stories remains. Yesterday, I briefly shared the call and put position ratio related to 300/100/50 index options. Today, it closed at 1.55, which is in the sensitive area of ​​​​the historically comparable stage bottom.