March 26th Crypto Options Volatility Research Report

BTC breaks previous high, or is it a flash crash?

Important reminder: There will be a BIT options competition at 9:00 pm this Thursday. The Sober chat options team will be broadcast live internally. There will be no replays and only participating team players will be included.

1. Core viewpoints:

1-BTC is trading sideways at a high level, with a high probability of hitting new highs. We are not bearish; however, we do not recommend naked buying of call options.

2- Layout ETH’s ETF through prediction strategies. Currently, Planet has given 2 strategies.

3-Sol and other counterfeit underlying options will gradually provide some long option strategies with good profit-loss ratios

2. BTC\ETH\Sol

①In stock

BTC and ETH rose further after the opening of the US stock market yesterday, breaking through the 70,000 and 3,600 integer marks respectively. In particular, BTC continues to sprint towards historical highs; at this time, players with little spot can choose the opportunity to pick up some of the spot.

Sol has been at a high level recently, and the probability of reaching the previous high point during the sideways trading period of BTC is not low. Therefore, in our options strategy, in the short term, we should focus on the risk of Sol rising and shorting. Players who make covered calls should pay attention to selling the equivalent. Selling can be taken away in one wave.

②Option hidden wave

The day before yesterday, when BTC had not yet broken through 7W, the planet reminded us to pay attention to the maximum accumulated quarterly delivery this month - the Gamma point of 7W. There is a high probability that it will be broken through.

From the delivery level, it also reminds that these two days are the time for institutions to move positions and change months, and there is a high probability that the implied volatility will continue to move downwards, suppressing the wave.

Judging from the overall volatility term structure, BTC is very healthy. The bearish side of ETH was relatively steep before the end of May, and the overall vol was 4-8% higher than the bullish side.

Sol's ATM hidden wave has also dropped by nearly 20 vol in the past two days. Players who are short on volatility have made good profits recently, with weekly returns of 4-7%; the current volatility of Sol is obviously not suitable to continue to be short, and the next round of rise will The wave is gestating.

③Bulk transactions

In terms of BTC, the overall volatility surface is much better than that of ETH, and most of the large volumes are bullish transactions.
buy BTC-27DEC24-100000-C
buy BTC-12APR24-78000-C + sell BTC-26APR24-100000-C

In terms of ETH, there were a large number of long put spread/ratio put spread in March and April. Many large players were relatively conservative in ETH at a relatively small cost and chose to take the plunge. At the same time, there was still an obvious net call option purchase above 3750 Strike at the end of March. inflow,.

Sol There is no particularly large trading volume, all of which are 400-600 equivalents.
sell SOL_USDC-26APR24-215-C
buy SOL_USDC-29MAR24-180-P

3. Other copycat options

Focus on Doge, Kas, and Ton; new targets will be more cautious. At present, the width of the overall target and the degree of deep cultivation coverage are in a balanced state. No new research targets will be added until there is no obvious improvement in research capabilities.

4. Capital Market Macro

US stocks:
U.S. bond yields fluctuated slightly, Tesla, which we had previously followed, rose significantly, and options strategies achieved some solid gains.

A shares:
Yesterday, the overall index closed okay, but there was no main narrative line overall. The National Standing Committee continued to implement the previous tone of equipment updates, stating its stance on promoting the update of automobiles and home appliances, and promoting the development of cross-border e-commerce. New energy also responded to the push with gains during the session.

But at the moment, it is difficult for these sectors to play a major role in driving the overall market. Generally speaking, a long-term horizontal trend will lead to a decline, because there is a bottom-line expectation of GJD. Therefore, I personally feel that the probability of a large downward adjustment is not high.

However, if there is no big fluctuation, there will be no new money coming in.

Finally, if there are any players who want to learn options in depth, you are welcome to join "Sober Chat Options Private Training Class, Planet"

The number of places is limited, so let’s work together slowly