I said in the article "We may have to rely on the second rational trend" on April 6 that even in the first year of the bull market, some people have good cards of more than 10,000 US dollars and more than 20,000 US dollars for Bitcoin. At the same time, there will be people who have bad cards of more than 30,000 US dollars or even more than 40,000 US dollars.

In Ethereum, some people get good cards worth more than $1,000, while others get bad cards worth more than $2,000.

The reason why it is a good hand is that the lower your chips are, the higher the annualized return will be, and the closer you will be to 100% return by the end of the year.

The reason why it is a bad hand is that the higher your chips are, the lower the annualized return is, and by the end of the year, the closer it is to zero return or even a floating loss.

In the first year of the bull market, why does everyone have different cards in their hands?

Are those who buy coins for $30,000 or $40,000 stupid?

From their perspective, those who chased the rise at over $30,000 or even over $40,000 may be betting that the trend will continue and the price will go up unilaterally. Because they missed out on opportunities before, they even added leverage or went long to make up for the losses.

Stimulated by the rising K-line and the fact that others are making money, they will be less patient than usual, pay more attention to immediate returns, and even go long at high leverage, becoming more and more short-sighted.

This is why so many people buy high.

Short-sightedness makes people make stupid decisions and forget common sense.

The three years of the bull market are by no means a straight line that goes upward, but a curve full of twists and turns. In the 36 months, any few months of consolidation can bury a large number of leveraged investors.

Reasonable expectations:

Trees won’t grow to the sky all of a sudden, Rome wasn’t built in a day, and a bull market often takes two or three years to maximize.

The year 2023 will be the process of establishing a solid foundation of 20,000 or 30,000 US dollars.

The year 2024 will be the process of establishing a solid foundation at 40,000 or 60,000 US dollars.

In 2025, the prosperity and growth will be unquantifiable.

If you buy good cards worth more than $10,000 or $20,000, you can expect a 100% return this year, the lower the better.

If you buy bad cards worth more than 30,000 or 40,000 US dollars, you can only expect the annualized increase in 2024, the second year of the bull market.

Of course, it has only broken through 30,000 US dollars now.

If the market rises excessively and breaks through $40,000 in the second half of the year, or in the first half of the year, more people will definitely buy.

In the same year, there are always more people who buy more than 30,000/40,000 US dollars than those who buy more than 10,000/20,000 US dollars.