Last night, both sides of Bitcoin engaged in fierce battles below the 30-day moving average at 98,200. The flickering macro signals have caused worry, reminiscent of the flickering night sky in 'The Three-Body Problem'... But don't be afraid; the crypto space has no new stories, and don't worry about the industry lacking innovation, nor about being played out; wait for the wind to come; when the wind comes; the stories we want, the innovations we seek, and the positivity we desire will all return; capital says there must be light, so...
A fluctuation of around 5% in the crypto market is quite normal; let's not forget, we are a global open 24-hour super casino. If BTCD breaks below 55%, it will be a starting point.
First, from the perspective of daily indicators, I believe that Bitcoin's indicator adjustments are already quite in place;
The range from 100,000 to 92,000 serves as a downward continuation, and the possibility of continuing to make significant downward adjustments is low; the greater probability is to make a volume-reducing adjustment in this range and then move upward.
1. The adjustment since the high point of 109353 is a relatively complex joint adjustment;
2. The rebound from the low point of 91530 at a smaller scale has not shown obvious momentum, indicating that Bitcoin is still in a consolidation phase;
3. The overall bull market trend has not changed; this is just an adjustment, with the larger scale finding support at the MA60 moving average on the daily chart;
Based on the above judgment, strategies that aim to break out on the right side may frequently hit stop losses in this market, so a strategy of buying on dips (retesting) on the left side is more suitable for the current market conditions.
The American holiday is coming to an end, and starting this week, liquidity may begin to return, with altcoins still being a focus.
Focus on two renamed coins
1. MKR to SKY
From the beginning until now, it has not changed; I bought near the bottom line back in September, and the red circle areas are positions where I have operated. Old projects have the advantage of K-line comparisons; if old trees can bear new fruit, they are likely to gain trust more easily than new projects.
2. FTM to S
I remember this project is AC's favorite; like old trees bearing new fruit, it had a round in October 2023, which made less than double before being washed out; the altcoin season at the beginning of 2024 has risen by 3 times;
The charts of these two coins tell me that there is always capital playing in them, so they are worth paying attention to.
Macro aspects
1. In the absence of other news to stimulate market sentiment, we need to pay attention to the non-farm payroll and unemployment rate on January 10 to see if they can become a key point for stimulating the market. However, I personally believe that the impact will not be too great;
2. There is still half a month until Trump's inauguration on January 20, so we can pay attention to Trump-related memes.
Bitcoin is consolidating, so ETH and SOL are also consolidating, and it's almost squeezing the market dry; all I can say is that patience is one of the essential qualities in an investment career.
Recently, the AI Agent track has been experiencing a crazy surge, and new friends are envious and want to get in on this market wave.
1. Large position selection
Projects like ai16z, ZEREBRO, AIXBT, GOAT, and VIrtual, which have emerged as consensus leaders, are similar to how DeFi Summer focused heavily on MKR, COMP, UNI, LINK, etc.
2. Mid-position selection
Projects like arc, REI, Focai, ELIZA, Swarms, SPORE, SNAI, ALCH, and NEUR are still in a chaotic stage of technical framework standards and innovative models.
3. Small position selection
Jumping into various flying CA small projects may seem good at first glance, but there is no time to study as they experience significant market fluctuations, such as MetaV, stoic, SYMX, TAOCAT, ZAILGO, POLY, etc. There will be many similar projects in the early stages, but among them, the number of scams is also the highest. (We need to be careful to discern).